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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: marc ultra who wrote (4725)4/24/1999 1:30:00 PM
From: marc ultra  Read Replies (2) of 15132
 
market macro timing considerations.
1) market tends to do well in pre-election years-good but:
2) I recall Bob saying historically most money made from November to May with May to November being relatively lousy. I think the proper break points here would be November 1st and May 1st

Disregarding distributions which should have been small, looking at Vanguard Index 500 started May 1998 at 103.24 and started Nov 1998 at 102.28 for a net May to Nov loss of about 1% on NAV. Then looking at the start of Nov 98 at 102.28 to the present as we near the end of April and 4/23/99 NAV is 125.46 we have a gain of 22.7% in NAV. So for our most recent comparison this NOV to May relative strength over May to Nov was huge with a 23% outperformance over the prior May to Nov period. Thought this might be something to note since unleaded gas is a great investment since summer is coming<g> no check that I mean May is coming, is historically a rather poor month and we're coming off a huge rally as well as broadening in the market which is making everyone afraid of missing the party. If the sentiment indicators take a bullish pop from here I would definitely be cautious, most of the big money this year may have already been made.

Marc
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