Mang Cheng,
In one of your posts, you mentioned an upgrade by Needham:
"...The stock got a boost earlier this week after Needham & Co. analyst Peter Lieu on Monday raised his rating on the shares to strong buy from buy.
Lieu lifted his growth estimate for the company based on its successful Palm Pilot business and its moves into high-growth markets for DSL equipment, cable modems and LAN telephony gear. -By Mark Boslet; 650 496-1366 "
Can you tell me where I can find more detail on this? If he's raising his growth estimate, I'd like to know what his new estimate is. Also, did he raise any quarterly or FY earnings estimates, and if so, what are they?
Thanks for any info you can provide.
By the way, I've got to tell you I don't think I've ever been so uncertain about a stock. If I look out 1 year, I can see this stock at $20 and I can see it at $100. It all depends on getting back on a better growth track and getting into more profitable businesses, besides NICs and modems.
If Cisco has been so successful, I would think that their businesses are the place to be. I wouldn't just surrender to them and look to other business like modems. I would go straight at them and compete with similar or superior products, and with exceptional SG&A.
Otherwise, if they can't make money in NICs and modems, then they need to have more than just Palm Pilot. If PalmPilot doesn't last, or if pricing pressures take away its profitability, then the financials just get worse.
I got into this stock, most recently, in Jan and Feb 1997, and I'm down 50%. I'm really losing patience with them. The growth estimate for them has steadily fallen and currently sits at 20.4%. Earnings estimates are constantly being revised downward, and it seems like I'll never make money on this. If you believe the FY00 earnings estimate of $1.30, and apply what I consider is a fair P/E of 20, based on recent company performance and expectations going forward, then this stock is worth $26. So we're at my fair value, and I can only expect to earn 20% per year unless something dramatic happens.
Everytime I start to sell, they show signs of improvement; but after a quarter of improvement, they come out with more disappointments. I CAN'T STAND IT ANYMORE.
Sorry to vent on you. Do you know where I can find out some details on the upgrade?
Thanks.
Stu B |
