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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: BigBull who wrote (43176)4/24/1999 3:28:00 PM
From: Ahmed Elneweihi  Read Replies (2) of 95453
 
BigBull, Even though I am from the Middle East (this is why I do not like anti-Arab remarks I read sometimes on this thread), I do not want to venture predicting what could happen there. The problem is that in the ME, the policies could change because of the ruler (be it a king or a president) change of heart or opinion. You may not see the continuity of policies that we are used to in the West, because in the latter the policies in general are determined by the institutions and business which do not usually make 180-degree decisions. But, there is one thing clear in the ME and elsewhere is that economic progress can not proceed in a country without some western business participation. Given that, a country like Iran may decide that while they oppose the West on so many fronts, they may not see anything wrong with accepting western participation in things such as development of oil fields. After all, who else can do that for them; definitely not Russia. I agree with you that if Khomeni was alive, something like this would not have happened. He was a man of principles (whether you agree with his principles or not) who would sacrifice economic well being for the sake of what he believed to be morally correct. I suspect the new regie in Iran may be more flexible.

Now, I would like to know from you a few things, what is the enormous implication on our investment that you see in the ME opening its fields to the west? Would not something like this benefit only the major internationals such as XON and the like? Or were you thinking of the osx companies that have presence in the ME (I know of SDC and to a degree GLBL)? And, are you not concerned that developing of new fields could contribute to a long term decline in the price of oil if more oil becomes available at the time that alternative fuels are developing and becoming more of a reality than say ten years ago?
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