Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? Message Board

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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end?

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Jun 26 5:00 PM EST

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To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote ()	4/24/1999 4:03:00 PM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (3) of 3543

Tuesday July 6th, BancBostons Keith Benjamine (Mary Meeker or one of the other net guru's) will issue a downgrade on net stocks as 2nd quarter revenues and profits will show signs of slowing due to seasonal factors. This caution will be lightly worded as not to cause panic selling and will indicate that revenue growth will be expected to pick up again in the latter half of the 3rd quarter. This caution along with lingering concerns of were the tech sector sector is headed due to the expected slowdown with hardware related stocks will begin a selloff that will remain unabated as varrious unnamed tech and internet related issues begin to issue dissapointing results in the following two weeks. IMO Monday's sell off of 19% in the internet sector will look like a walk in the park compared to the carrnage that will result when the expected bounce off the dip doesn't occur. As the bubble begins to deflate it will be aided and abetted by margin calls and rumors of online brokerages unable to liquidate positions in margin accounts where the value has turned negative. This inturn will cause the NYSE and NASDAQ to temporarly restrict selling of certian securities by the general public and prevent them from closing their accounts with troubled brokeragers untill a plan can be developed to reestablish the public's confidence in the securities industry. How far panic will spread is difficult to determine however it will potentially engulf all internet issues, many bluechip stocks in the tech sector as well as the brokerages. If this senario doesn't play out in July it will certianly occur by Octobers earnings season. Given the strength of last weeks bounce, I'm a bit parinoid about how dammaging the inevitable correction will actually be. Strongly suggest you check the legalease on your brokerage agreement and see what types of insurance for your account is available should your brokerage get dragged down. How's that sound? Best Regards, Mad2

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