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Gold/Mining/Energy : Oil & Gas Price Economics

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To: Arktic who wrote (90)4/24/1999 10:21:00 PM
From: ferrit  Read Replies (2) of 350
 
Paul: As you observe Crude Oil futures are in very marked Backwardation. This normally occurs only when there is an acute shortage of the commodity for spot delivery, eg when Russia is holding
up supplies of palladium. Since there is no shortage of crude oil at
present,nearly all storage tanks are full, the only explanation I can
offer is that the market expects OPEC to abide by the quotas for a few
months, but by next summer they will again be over producing thus
driving the price down. I would be very interested in the views of people with knowledge of the futures markets, because I too am puzzled.
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