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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)
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To: FMK who wrote (10693)4/25/1999 11:36:00 AM
From: Dennis V.  Read Replies (2) of 27311
 
Foreign interests, in particular, will do anything to sell product. This is a quasi- state priority and will be pursued by any available means a priori and irrespective of short term profit. These interests are transitioning to li poly, but in the meantime have large investments in canister li ion manufacturing equiment to amortize. The plan has been to wait and see while developing their own technology. The waiting revolves around the hope or expectation that Valence will founder financially and their patents can be stolen. Some nervousness has set in since this outcome is now in doubt. Market pressures are building for improved technology. Surveys of li poly potential predict 25% penetration of the rechargeable market in 3-4 years. Lev's recent trip to Asia would not have been undertaken without incentive. Indications are that some competitors will license technology if their own cannot be developed or cannot be acquired by other means. During this transition period, these interests will continue to maintain market share by dumping or other incentives...(use your imagination). At some point, there will be flashover as some intrepid or innovative OEM's introduce this product in earnest. Market resistance will give way to acceptance and serious offers to license Valence technology will ensue. The time frame for substantial revenues to Valence is 1-2 years.
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