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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum
MU 232.50+1.8%10:33 AM EST

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To: A. A. LaFountain III who wrote (45384)4/25/1999 2:57:00 PM
From: Carl R.  Read Replies (1) of 53903
 
I agree that the leading producers should be able to make money at $6 this year, which is why I believe that the price won't stabilize until it reaches $5.50 or so, and if fact it wouldn't surprise me to see prices dip as low as $4.50-5.00. Isn't MU's target to get costs down to $4.50 this year?

Even at $6 though we should see some of the marginal producers starting to re-evaluate plans to expand DRAM capacity. My guess is that with DRAM holding in the $9+ range in the first quarter, a lot of producers ordered equipment to expand capacity for delivery, and that as the price plummets to sub $6 some of those orders will get deferred or cancelled. By the fourth quarter we should know, but the next several months will be rough ones for all DRAM producers, including MU.

Thanks for taking the time to post on this thread,

Carl
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