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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (11974)	4/25/1999 5:42:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Lee, re: China: with regards to china's banking system, it is indeed weak. as there are no trustworthy official figures, i can only relay estimates, which say that up to 60% of outstanding loans may be duds(the source for this info is the economist). this is utterly believable, as china's banks are forced by the government to keep up shoddy lending practices in order to keep the giant money-losing state industries afloat.as i have pointed out in an earlier post, the chinese government's foremost priority is to avoid social upheaval,as this would threaten it's grip on power as well as the unity of china. this creates a sort of vicious cycle, as important and painful structural reforms are postponed in favor of muddling through. a devaluation of the yuan becomes ever likelier, now that the financial crisis has officially been laid to rest. china could well become pivotal in the continuation or otherwise of the renewed confidence in financial markets worldwide. regards, hb

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