The Peabody Report: 4/25/99
The Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board. Comments are encouraged and appreciated.
Invest only after conducting your own research.
Have PFun!
BigKNY3
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PFE Stats (4/23/99):
Expected profit-taking after a strong move from the Peabody Valley.
PFE Versus the Dow- Intraday
quicken.com
DOW JONES:
Close: 10,690
PFE - PFIZER INC
Last Price: 127 at 16:15
Change: Down 1 5/16 (-1.02%)
High: 130 1/8 at 9:57
Low: 126 at 11:40
Open: 129 1/2
Previous Close: 128 5/16 on 4/22
Volume: 3,149,000
30-Day Avg. Volume: 3,614,000
Shares Outstanding: 1,293,175,000
52-Week High: 150.12
52-Week Low: 86
Beta: 0.93
Yield: 0.60%
P/E Ratio: 48.1
EPS: 2.64
_____________
The Peabody Model
Short-Term PFE Trend: Neutral with an upward bias (4/25/99)
A 12% gain in 4 days shifts Da Model to "Neutral" from "Moving Higher".
Target Peabody Peak: The new target Peabody Peak is 134.89 (+6.2%) by 5/19/99.
Target Peabody Valley: If the Model is wrong, PFE can move down to a new Peabody Valley of $113.39 (-10.7%). The Peabody Valley Strike Price is 121.02 (-4.7%).
Predicted PFE Level: At the current Dow level of 10,690 the predicted PFE price is 154.89..... Accordingly, PFE is 18.0% underpriced as compared to historical Dow and PFE trends. This is the highest underpricing of PFE in Da Model's history.
Da Short-term PForecast (4/25/99) PFE: 127.00 Dow: 10,690: It should be a relatively calm week in PFErland. Expect a run at 130 followed by profit taking and then a new rally attempt closing above the 130 level.
Suggested PFE Buying Range: $120 to $127 (4/25/99)
The Peabody Portfolio: 100 shares added @118.13 (4/20/99)
The Peabody Portfolio consists of 31 PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996. The Portfolio has purchased 4,700 PFE shares at an average price of $70.65 (only 3.7% off the subsequent PFE Valleys).
# PFE purchases since 8/14/96: 31
% of purchases in the black: 97%
# PFE shares purchased: 4,700
Average PFE purchase price: $70.65
Annualized return: 73.5%
Current return: 79.8%
# PFE purchases since 1/01/99: 4
% of purchases in the black: 75%
# PFE shares purchased: 400
Average PFE purchase price: $118.69
Current return: 7.0%
Date............#..........Purchase
Purchased...Shares...Price
8/14/96:..... 200 ........$36.38
10/25/96:....200 .........$40.44
12/4/96:......200..........$41.69
12/12/96:.....200.........$40.50
12/16/96:.....200.........$40.44
12/31/96:....200..........$41.50
1/2/97:........200.........$40.94
1/28/97: ......200..........$42.38
2/28/97:.......200...........$45.69
3/24/97:.......200...........$44.88
3/27/97:.......200...........$42.81
3/31/97:........200..........$42.56
8/8/97:..........200..........$55.13
4/16/98:........200...........$97.00
4/27/98:........200...........$113.00
5/7/98:..........200...........$107.50
5/15/98:.........100..........$105.00
5/27/98 :........100 .........$101.75
7/06/98 :........100 .........$106.00
7/29/98 :........100 .........$110.50
8/05/98 :........100 .........$104.00
8/07/98 :........100 .........$102.63
8/11/98..........100..........$100.00
9/01/98..........100..........$97.63
10/06/98.........100..........$94.00
10/09/98.........100..........$89.00
10/14/98.........100..........$89.50
01/10/99.........100........$117.00
01/12/99.........100........$110.25
04/15/99..........100........$129.38
04/25/99..........100.........$118.13
Total:............4,700.........$70.65
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Peabody Peaks & Valleys: Updated 4/25/99
Listed below is an updated summary of the Peabody Peaks and Valleys since 1/04/90.
The columns include the following data:
- PFE prices
- % change since the previous Peabody Valley or Peak
- # of days from the last Peabody Valley or Peak
- # of high volume days associated with the Peabody Valley or Peak
- predicted next Peabody Valley or Peak using the Model
- difference between the predicted Peabody price and the actual price .
___________________________________________________
................................................................................ Predicted
.........................................% Chg... # Days..High Vol..Peabody....% Diff
...............................PFE.....Last........Last....Days ....Next Pred..Peabody/
Peak/Valley.. Date...Price...Vall/Pk....Val/Pk. W/ Date...Vall/Pk....Actual
1....Peak.....1/4/90....9.06.................................. 2....... 6.92........1.5%
2....Valley...2/26/90...6.81.....-24.8%..... 53........12......11.31.......19.0%
3....Peak.... 7/31/90...9.50......39.4%.....155.......21........7.31....... -8.7%
4....Valley...8/23/90...8.00.....-15.8%..... 23..........1.......12.61 .....-41.3%
5....Peak.....2/30/91..21.50...168.8%... 494 .........9.......18.07...... 4.9%
6....Valley...2/19/92...17.22...-19.9%......51..........8.......22.76...... 19.2%
7....Peak.....2/27/92...19.10....10.9% .......8 .........2.......15.91...... -6.4%
8...Valley....4/28/92...17.00....-11.0%......61.........3.......22.52....... 8.2%
9....Peak.....8/20/92...20.81.....22.4%....114........4........17.45 .......+0.4%
10..Valley...10/5/92....17.38....-16.5%......46.......10.......22.93.......14.7%
11..Peak.....2/14/92 ...20.00.....15.1%......70........3.......16.72........27.4%
12..Valley....2/22/93 ...13.13 ...-34.4%..... 70 .....33.......18.25 ......14.5%
13..Peak.....3/11/93 ...15.94 ....21.4%......17 . .....3.......13.08 .... -8.2%
14..Valley....3/24/93 ...14.25 ...-10.6%......13........1........19.49......3.1%
15..Peak.....6/17/93 ...18.90.....32.6%...... 85.......6.......15.73 .....13.1%
16..Valley...8/16/93 ...13.92 ....-26.4%..... 60.....13.......19.13 .....17.2%
17..Peak.....9/03/93....16.31......17.2%......18.......1.......13.41......-7.1%
18..Valley...10/04/93...14.44 ....-11.5%......31.......1.......19.70 .....11.9%
19..Peak.... 12/30/93...17.60 .....21.9%......87.......0......14.57 .......9.7%
20..Valley....3/31/94....13.29 ....-24.5%......91.......2......18.43......-18.1%
21..Peak......3/29/95....22.50.....69.4%.....363......3......18.96.......-5.8%
22..Valley.....5/15/95....20.13..... -10.6%.....47......5......25.96........0.6%
23..Peak......8/1/95......25.81......28.3%..... 78..... 5......21.93 ......-5.7%
24..Valley....9/8/95.......23.25.....-9.9%....... 38....10.....29.40 .......-12.1%
25..Peak.....12/14/95....33.44.....43.8%.......97......5.....28.77.........-4.9%
26..Valley.....1/19/96.....30.25.....-9.5%.......36....14..... 37.10.........4.9%
27..Peak.......2/13/96.....35.38....16.9%.......25.....4...... 30.50 ........-0.8%
28..Valley.....3/14/96..... 30.75....-13.1%......30.....11.....37.65.........4.0%
29..Peak.......4/3/96 ......36.19....17.7%.......20..... 2......31.23 .......-0.7%
30..Valley......5/8/96......31.44....-13.1%......35......3......38.41........-0.7%
31..Peak.......6/17/96.....38.69....23.1%.......40......3......33.47........2.0%
32..Valley......7/16/96.....32.81....-15.2%.....29......2.......39.92........-7.7%
33..Peak.....10/21/96......43.25...31.8%.......97..... 5.......37.56....... -4.9%
34..Valley....10/28/96.....39.50....-8.7%........7.......5.......47.28 ....... 3.6%
35..Peak.....11/26/96 .....45.63...15.5%......29.......4.......39.69 .......-0.1%
36..Valley....12/6/96 .......39.75...-12.9%.....10.......5.......47.56........-4.6%
37..Peak.......2/18/97......49.88...25.5%......74...... 5.......43.50.........4.8%
38..Valley..... 4/03/97......41.50...-16.8%.....44.....15.......49.48........30.9%
39..Peak.......7/07/97.......64.75.. 56.0%......95 ....18.....55.13 .........-7.4%
40...Valley....8/18/97........51.06...-21.1%.....42 ...11.....66.88.........10.1%
41...Peak....10/24/97.......73.63 ...44.2%......67.....3 ....62.00...........4.8%
42...Valley...10/27/97.......65.00 ...-11.7% .....4.....2.....85.50.........-12.1%
43...Peak....10/30/97.......74.88.....15.2% .....2..... 3.....66.00.........+0.5%
44...Valley...11/13/97.......66.31....-11.3%....14.... 3.....83.00.........-3.6%
45...Peak....12/04/97.......80.00.....20.6%....21.....2......69.13.......+0.6%
46...Valley...12/19/97.......69.56....-13.0%....15.....1......87.13........+9.0%
47...Peak......1/05/98.......79.94.....14.9% ....17....1......69.38 ....... -2.4%
48...Valley... 1/12/98...... 71.06.....-11.1% .... 7....3 .....87.00........ -4.9%
49...Peak..... 2/27/98...... 91.44.......28.7% ...46 ...1 ....79.87 ....... -5.1%
50...Valley....3/06/98.......84.13.........-8.0% .... 7 ...3....103.71.......+0.0%
51....Peak.....4/06/98 ....103.75........23.3%...31...13.....91.86 ........-3.6%
52...Valley.... 4/16/98......95.31........ -8.1%....10 ....1...116.50 ........-4.3%
53...Peak......4/21/98.....121.75.........27.7%.....5 ....8...109.12..........4.5%
54...Valley....5/17/98 .....104.75........-14.0% ...26 ..2....124.00.......+8.6%
55....Peak ....5/20/98 .....114.19.........9.0%......3 ...4 ....101.10.......+0.8%
56 ...Valley.. 6/01/98......100.38........-12.1%....12...5 ....119.75.......+4.2%
57....Peak.... 6/18/98 ....114.94..........14.5%....17...1 ...102.00........-3.4%
58....Valley.. 7/06/98 .....105.63......... -8.1% ...18 ..4.....126.59.......+5.0%
59....Peak ...7/14/98......120.56..........14.1% .....8 ..4....107.00........+9.2%
60... Valley... 8/11/98......98.00.........-18.7%.....28...1.....117.19.......+7.6%
61....Peak...8/19/98.......108.94..........10.6% .....8 ..1.......97.06........+5.5%
62....Valley.. 9/01/98 ..... 92.00......... -15.5% ...13 ..6....109.79.......+7.6%
63....Peak ...9/03/98......102.06..........10.9% ......2....5.....90.32........-3.4%
64... Valley.. 9/04/98......93.50...........-8.4%........1... 5...110.79.......+6.7%
65....Peak.....9/15/98.....103.88........+11.1%.....11...0.... 92.25.......-2.9%
66....Valley....9/21/98......95.00.........-8.5%.........6...0....110.00.....+0.7%
67....Peak.....9/28/98.....109.19........+14.9%...... 7...2......96.93.....+12.7%
68....Valley...10/08/98......86.00........-21.3%.....10...5......101.40.....+4.6%
69....Peak.....10/12/98.... 96.94........+12.7%.......4...0.... 85.30......-3.6%
70....Valley...10/14/98......88.50.........-8.7%........2...2....103.36.......-19.8%
71....Peak....12/31/98 ... 128.94......+45.7%.......78...1.....114.00.......+4.1%
72....Valley...1/12/99......109.56........-15.0%.....12...4.....127.49........-5.3%
73....Peak....2/02/99 ... 134.63.......+22.9%......21...5.....118.66.......-5.1%
74....Valley...2/09/99......125.00........-7.1%.........7.....0....139.84........-3.2%
75....Peak.....3/23/99 ... 144.50.........+15.6%....42....2.....128.27.......-4.9%
76....Valley...3/26/99.....134.88.........-6.7%........3....0.......157.25.......+4.7%
77....Peak.....4/12/99... 150.13.......+11.3%.......17....2.....131.31.......+15.0%
78....Valley...4/19/99.....115.88........-12.8%........4....4....134.89......+3.7%
79....Peak*.....4/23/99... 130.13.......+12.3%.......4....3....
........*Pending
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Average..Peak (1999) N=4..............+15.5%.....21.............3
Average..Peak (1998) N=13............+18.3%.....18 ............3
Average..Peak (1997) N= 5.............+32.3%.....52.............7
Average..Peak (90-99) N=40...........+27.1%.....61 ............4
Average..Valley (1999) N= 4 .......... -12.9%......7 .............2
Average..Valley (1998) N=12 ......... -12.1%.....12 .............3
Average.. Valley (1997) N= 5...........-14.2%.....10 .............2
Average..Valley (90-99) N=39 .........-14.3%.....28 .............6
The Peabody 1999 Archives
4/25/99 PFE@127: "Neutral with an upward bias...expect a run at 130."
4/20/99 PFE@118: "This is a major PFE buying opportunity....that due to the rapid decline usually freezes most investors and PFErs from taking action."
4/18/99 PFE@127 1/16 "Moving higher from the Peabody Valley...The Model is indicating a major buy signal for PFE....Accordingly, Mr. Peabody will be adding 100 shares by the end of Tuesday's close.
4/15/99 PFE@130 "Moving higher from the Peabody Valley...After another bout of profit-taking in the am, PFE will rebound strongly on Friday..."
4/14/99 PFE@ 144 5/8 "Neutral with an upward bias...Be very alert!! PFE 1 Qt earnings could trigger a strong move up or down..If the move is down to the 140 level, another PFE buy opportunity will be upon us."
4/10/99 PFE@146 "Neutral with an upward bias...Particularly exciting week with many forces at play...Expect traditional profit-taking down to 140 before the run at 150..."
www3.techstocks.com
3/29/99 PFE@141: "Headed higher to an all-time high (144 1/2) and more.....PFE will propel pass 150 in April".
Message 8595595
3/28/99 PFE@135: " A PFE buying opportunity will surface this week....The basic PFE PFUNdamentals have never been stronger. In July, you will be wondering why you did not buy PFE at pre-adjusted split levels of 43-45 (129 to 135)."
Message 8569605
3/23/99 PFE@139.25: "PFE will reverse and move lower".
www3.techstocks.com
3/16/99 PFE@142.00: "PFE will reverse and move lower".
www3.techstocks.com
3/11/99 PFE@140.68: "PFE will reverse and move lower".
www3.techstocks.com
3/08/99 PFE@139.56: "PFE will reverse and move lower..long-term PFE is headed to the long-awaited $150 level."
www3.techstocks.com
3/07/99 PFE@136.56: "PFE will now battle @140..expect profit-taking at all-time highs and even a possible drop back to the high 120s."
www3.techstocks.com
2/28/99 PFE@131.94: "Expect a March trading range of 125 to 142".
www3.techstocks.com
2/23/99 PFE@ 133.88: "PFE moving higher to $140".
www3.techstocks.com
2/14/99 PFE@130.13: "Short-term trend "Neutral"...PFE could sink to another buying opportunity or jump to an all-time high".
www3.techstocks.com
2/09/99 PFE@125.25:" Be very alert for a buying opportunity this week."
www3.techstocks.com
2/02/99 PFE@ 132.69: "PFE will reverse and move lower....a final attempt @135 before the Valley ride begins".
www3.techstocks.com
1/31/99 PFE@128.88 :" Expect a February trading range of 119 to 135+". (Actual: 125 to 135)
www3.techstocks.com
1/28/99 PFE@127.56: "PFE has momentum and will break an all-time high and possibly the 130 level...but profit-taking will begin".
www3.techstocks.com
1/27/99 PFE@121.94: "3-4-1 and have PFun!...Thursday is the key day."
www3.techstocks.com
1/26/99 PFE@120.13: "PFE moving higher...positive trend will gain momentum."
www3.techstocks.com
1/24/99 PFE@115.75: "Near term direction unclear...positive PFE news to be announced"
www3.techstocks.com
1/10/99 PFE@122.25: "After 2 months, the Model has reversed and shows a positive upward trend....A PFE split announcement is guaranteed later this month with a 75% probability of a historic 3-1."
www3.techstocks.com
The PFE 1999 Split: All you need to know
-At the 4/22/99 Annual Meeting, shareholders officially authorized increasing the number of outstanding shares to allow a 3-1 split and a future 2-1 split.
-Following the meeting, the PFE Board of Directors met and formally approved the 3-1 split and set June 30, 1999 as its effective date.
-A split does not increase the value of PFE (100 shares@150 will be converted to 300shares@50). However, historically it certainly has not hurt the PFE price . Note PFE's growth during the split years:
Year Ending..... Dow ........PFE......% Chg .
Date................ Index.......Price.....Prior Year....Comments
12/31/87...........1,896........5.82......-25.0%....... Bear market/market crash
12/30/88...........2,169........7.25.......24.7%
12/29/89........... 2,753.......8.69......19.9%
12/31/90............2,634.......10.10.....16.2%
12/31/91............3,168.......21.00.......108.0%.....2-1 split (2/91)
12/31/92.......... 3,301.......18.13......-13.7%......Clinton elected president
12/31/93......... ..3,754........17.25.......-4.8%.......Healthcare reform pending
12/30/94......... ..3,844........19.32.......12.0%
12/29/95............5,177........31.50.......63.1% ......2-1 split (6/95)
12/30/96............6,448........41.50.......31.7%
12/31/97............7,908........74.56.......79.7% ......2-1 split (6/30/97)/Lipitor launched
12/31/98......... ..9,181........125.00......67.6%......Viagra approved (3/27/98)
04/23/99............10,690.......127.00...... 1.6%.....Celebrex launched (1/19/99)
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