I agree that MU probably won't make money this quarter, though they might. I doubt that they will make it next quarter either. After that, I think there will be a long steady improvement. As for making money off of crumbs, in most businesses the crumbs are extremely profitable because some competitors are too arrogant to eat them. <G>
As for yields, it is very easy for someone to say that "this company is yielding 90%", or "that company's costs are $4.50." If you choose to believe those kind of numbers, that is your business. As for me, a companies actions speak louder than words. Hyundai is expanding in Oregon, so I presume that their costs are in the $6 range or less. Last fall they did line shutdowns when the costs hit $8, so I presume that their costs last fall were above $8. MU continues to deploy equipment and technology to former TI fabs with prices in the $6 range, so again, I presume that their costs are below $6.
The DRAM market will continue to ebb and flow, and things will look worse for awhile, then things will look better. For now, things are on a down slope, but it won't be long before things are turning the other way again. That's what makes MU fun (and profitable) to follow. How low will we go before we turn back up? I don't know, but hopefully I'll know when to switch sides again.
Carl |
