Comments.....
Posted over on AOL this evening.....
>>FKSmart, who I sorely miss, has been very astute in his observations and beyond informative concerning the way of the future world, and his feelings about Novell's place have always seemed firmly rooted in fact and theory. I still BELIEVE myself, but I am not totally convinced this is a hands down done deal when it comes to who is going to come out on top.>>
The whole world is undergoing a MASSIVE revolution right now. Don't ever lose sight of this.
Novell's technology is at the heart of a worldwide movement away from proprietary platforms towards secure, scalable systems that will seamlessly funnel the digital comings and goings of INDIVIDUALS - not corporations or governments - who will drive ALL markets from here on out.
When you boil everything down, all markets are essentially conversations between individuals. ALL individuals have an unlimited potential to embrace powerful new ways of leveraging their impact and influence within markets.
I firmly believe that we are entering a "new era" which will be defined by THE INDIVIDUAL. Corporations are just groups of individuals that needed to band together in order to "brand together". Without the Internet, companies had the luxury of creating power and influence through enormous expenditures in time, money and energy to nurse and build BRANDS.
But now we have a new phenomena shaping the world: COMMUNITY. Community is all that we know, see, feel and share within a specific vertical sphere of interest. Community is THIS Motley Fool Novell board and all the other Novell financial forums that cater to interested investors who want to take more ownership over their investments by sharing their thoughts, ideas, visions, etc. for what Novell could/should be.
New technologies are coming up out of the woodwork to cater to this new energy behind "community". It all began with the Internet. We've seen the evolution of various portals that are trying to consolidate the power of community: Yahoo, Excite, Lycos, etc. Now we are witnessing the early stages of the e-commerce era where large early brands such as Amazon are trying to replicate/duplicate their money-losing business models to other consumer verticals - CDs, video, etc.
Parallel to this trend we have various auction and bidding forums which have found their niche by hooking an individuals need to continuously price their wares to buy/sell and swap, etc. Supporting these initiatives we are finding various electronic searching tools and services which scan the Internet, consolidate offerings and display prices.
Attempts to portalize the powers behind this massive movement will all fail. For the power is being driven by the energy coming from INDIVIDUALS who are exercising their newfound right to know what's best for them and the people they represent - now, not later.
Try to OWN the client and, whether you are Jeff Bezos or not, you will find this Holy Grail to be forever beyond your ability to grasp and control. I'd hate to be the CFO for Amazon trying to justify to investors why their Yellowbrick road really leads to the Land of Oz and REAL money. My gut feeling is that investors are still enamored with the road for they haven't reached the castle, much less be asked to come back with the burnt broom or meet Oz himself. I completely understand why Jeff Bezos took so long to move out of his studio apartment in Seattle. He should now how fleeting this game can be for the REAL power rests with US, not Amazon.
As for Novell, we are beyond the FLUX point which I spoke of last fall. Business-to business e-commerce is going to be the next GREAT ROCKET SLED to ride on and you can be assured that the companies that will lead this trend will be those that don't wait around for Gates to get things right with Win2000, Active Directory and the rest of his fragmenting empire.
Look around you for a moment. Go visit your local retail store. Check out WallMart. Talk to the people. And listen to what they are saying. The whole world is going to a factory-direct distribution model. The busines-to-business e-commerce activity will EXPLODE beyond belief. This was the Holy Grail that Gates wanted to own with NT. But the horses have left the barn. Forget about Y2K. That's winding down as we speak. The leading companies of the future are taking the initiative NOW to embrace directory-based technologies and the apps that can ride off this infrastructure. Marketing and sales strategies are being throw out the window. It's time to clean slate. Get out of your office. Visit REAL people. Discover who your clients are, before we the people make your redundant and find a suitable generic replacement for YOUR brand.
The vast majority of the products we buy from day to day are easily substituted one vs. the other. As we move to a direct distribution business model, there will be a concomitant rise in the power of individuals in their local and regional areas who will be part of this 3rd Wave of the Internet - where INDIVIDUALS come out of the forest and woodwork to become more proactive about what they can do to influence community, build mind and marketshare for the products they research, discover, represent and share with those they know from day to day. I see a new evolution of individually-based networks of people from all walks of life organizing together along various vertical niches within this tapestry of community which finds people helping people for ongoing value-added benefits in the form of residuals, referrals, commissions, whatever, etc. I can see how markets will more efficiently evolve along these open conversations - such as what we share here on this thread - which any participant can enter and share in as long as they give back something. I see this tremendous rise in the power of giving, helping, serving others - all coming from INDIVIDUALS, NOT our government.
Novell's new slogan is "The Quiet Revolution" - which is fitting. But don't for one minute think the power of spin, marketing and FUD will reign the way it use to around these parts. For individuals are using these new communication vehicles to laser their way through all that obstructs, limits and restricts, etc. This is where WE offer a value-added benefit. Finding, organizing and sharing newly found better ways of building community, mindshare and marketshare will be ground zero in the markets of the next millennium.
So the ride we are all on is not full of 4th of July fireworks. Novell is squarely behind the power of this trend. I think they need to open up even more to embrace all that's within this movement. Novell should turn itself into more of a COMMUNITY, less of a company as we typically like to refer to it as. Allow the power behind INDIVIDUALS who make up this energy of COMMUNITY enter into taking over Novell's business core business model.
This may sound crazy, but in a wired world that knows not boundaries or obstructions is all makes Common Sense.
I feel like the Thomas Paines of this world are alive and well. Look at all the riches around us. Take a gander at the Internet. Get with what's happening in the world of digital wireless communications. The entire world is coming together as ONE, fueled by the power of ONE. Convergence is going on all around us. We are rewiring the world in ways that map to the needs which we, as INDIVIDUALS, are broadcasting.
Bandwidth is exploding. Networks are exploding. Cross platform communications of all types, shapes and sizes are exploding. And NO Bill Gates is out there able to control any of this. If anything, Gates has LOST control. He's still getting the benefit of his initial default victory with Windows, but there are so many other choices out there in a seamlessly wired world. Why do you need windows in a thin-client browser??
I know this is all very long-winded, but I hope this gives you an insight as to what's happening.
This are just my thoughts. I will get off my soapbox...again.
Best to all.
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