Arik, a few more "contrarian" thoughts.
At each of the two critical turning points in the last two years, there were quite a few TA measures yelling "screaming buy" and only one or two measures which indicated an impending disaster. In October 97, the impending disaster was indicated by the traditional NH/NL indicator. In July 98, a combination of advance on poor breadth and a NL-NH turning decisively negative the day after an all time high for both DOW and Nasdaq. In 1999, thus far, both of these measures failed as we have seen no significant correction.
So, I am thinking that we will have all the "screaming buys" intact. In fact more pronounced than in early oct of 97 and mid July of 98. True for now: improved breadth, return of the cyclicals, re-established "leadership" by AMZN (I already feel very dirty -g-). However, this time we may or may not have any indication of an impending disaster. In fact, I am thinking that a possible "red-alert" indicator this time will be "all (TA) systems are a go!"
It looks that way - as of Friday's close. So, me thinks that the lightening is about to strike. The storm is going to look pretty potent when it first shows-up. It will not strike so hard at that first appearance. Casualties may be limited. Then every one will return to the golf range. Then the real storm will hit and obliterate many on the green.
BTW, didn't we have a storm warning on Monday, April 16th? |
