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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here
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To: MikeM54321 who wrote (3436)4/26/1999 12:33:00 PM
From: MikeM54321  Read Replies (2) of 12823
 
I wrote, "Pretty amazing. AT&T is laying it all out on the line for HFC being the way for them to solve the last mile bandwidth problems AND their local access problem."

Ken and Thread,
Just in the FWIW category, this morning on CNBC there was a four-way discussion with a WSJ telecom expert who was talking about AT&T being able to execute. It was funny because the guest host (not the WSJ reporter), though he is a technology investor, didn't realize what AT&T's plans were. He thought AT&T might spend some money on twisted copper upgrades! Well that is off the subject.

Then they wanted some figures out of the reporter, and for some reason she didn't even give a range? But we all know AT&T is going to be spending in the BILLIONS of $$ on the cable plant upgrades.

But this is the important point they were discussing. Is AT&T, after doing all these TREMENDOUS aquistions and deals, going to be able to execute? She sited AT&T has not one cable telephone systems working yet. She sited the Femont California problems. I've heard it before, so I'm guessing the TCI-HFC Freemont network is not doing to well.

Now more importantly, I don't believe the WSJ reporter was aware of this, but there are cable phone systems currently working (POTS over coaxial and not packet based) and have been working for a few years now. I believe one system is in Japan. And some others in South America. So I don't feel like it is going to be a problem for AT&T to provide local telephone access at some point. It's just a matter of how much money it will cost and how much time.

But I really don't see any large institutional investors bailing out of AT&T because of the failure to execute concerns. I would be exetremly disappointed (as would a lot of last mile investors) if Armstrong ever got booted out of AT&T. I knew this issue would start to come up, but am surprised it is coming up so early in the game. I think it will die a quick death as the two-way HFC networks come on line. Telephone service may take a little longer, but I think with increasing broadband revenues, the market will have more patience.

Just thinking out loud.
MikeM(From Florida)
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