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Biotech / Medical : Pharmos (PARS)
PARS 2.700+13.6%Jan 21 4:00 PM EST
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To: cm who wrote (726)4/26/1999 4:31:00 PM
From: sam_b  Read Replies (1) of 1386
 

To estimate future share value is a quit difficult job.
There are so many variables to consider with.
From the other hand , as investors ,if you have a good
estimation for decision n o w it gives higher multiple in future.
Or to say it simple , the possibility to earn money is higher.

Suppose the rationality of the market in the next two or two and half years ahead remains the same as now.

with this assumption no need to evaluate by yourself. The market now consider all variables inside presence price.

So ,i decided to find a pharmaceutical company with similar details and situation as Pharmos in next two years.I assume that the value of
this company reflects the "real" price of the market not "my"
estimation .

The company is ALGOS PHARM.(ALGO) with market value of $500M.

biz.yahoo.com

I believe that two years from contract signing , Pharmos will
file a New Drug Application for HU211. The same situation as Algos in August 1998.

To compare on the same base we have to add premium to Pharmos. MORPHIDEX market value is similar to HU211 ( expected to approach
$1 billion in U.S. sales in 1999).

Pharmos will be alone . MorphiDex will share the market with more 5 competitors.

Also, we have to consider the earnings from ophthalmic line.
($14M brut or $9M net revenue in relevant period).
Algos has incurred losses since its inception and expects to incur losses in the future.
To develop HU211 is break through .Combining anesthetic drugs
like Morphine with NMDA drugs approved for human use ,is not in the same level of research .This point is no economic value but I enjoy and proud mention it.

$600M market value is a "good" number? (devide to 52M shares
it's 11.5) ??

$400M OR $800M OR ?? What is yours pick ?
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