David, if the current rally could take out $61 convincingly, then my original $49 is probably a good target yet. Right now, I do not believe this will happen, and the rally from the $51.5 low is even meeker than the bounce from the $61 level. I am getting to the point of having to eat crow again, and lowering my target for the second time to the $36/$37 area. Sure it looks like those turnips are flippant and change their mind too often, but they like to keep with the trend rather than being good guessers of the actual bottom or top. My reasoning for lowering the target is quite simple. At the time, the time table called for a low during June, and this time table has not changed, what I did not anticipate are two events, first the weakness in RMBS was greater than I expected, second, in the whole decline, I believe that institutions have actually increased their position, and if indeed we are going to get (by now belated, more crow for this Jewish Farmer) a "Spring Relapse", then I fear that the same institutions that were grabbing shares all the way down here, will panic and dump some of these on a very illiquid market.
Zeev |
