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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Villemure who wrote (26766)4/26/1999 10:19:00 PM
From: PJ Strifas  Read Replies (2) of 42771
 
A Quick note on a discussion that silenced a few people at work today...

<"Novell's plan is to bring the networking expertise of Novell's Directory Services – including configuration, policy and security – into TI DSP-powered systems such as residential gateways, access systems, mobile connectivity and Internet appliances," said Christopher Stone, Novell's senior vice president of strategy and business development>

This is evidence of the world moving from server-centric (or even platform-centric) computing to directory-centric access to services on multiple servers (or platforms).

This is the future. This is today with NDS.

Right now, we predominately live in a server-centric world where everything we do is tied to the operating system used by servers (& desktops). This is a revenue model as well (I point to MSFT, SUN, IBM and NOVL to name a few).

But Novell has realized this model is outdated. Hell, they invented it in the mid-'80s so they should know right? The future is the directory because it will no longer be tied to a server platform and contricted to certain implemenations or deployments. I believe this is very important for us to understand.

If Novell can make the shift to the directory driving revenues which can grow at a double-digit rate, we're far beyond the server market here. The key would be to translate NDS users into real $$$ in a direct relationship (IE, $12 per NDS user). Then drive product development by 3rd parties as well as your own company much in the way MSFT did with their desktop market.

IMHO this takes 3 steps -

1) make the best directory product possible.
a) make it scalable, reliable, secure.
b) make it work on every server platform out there.
2) make sure development costs for 3rd parties is low.
a) use popular development methods and tools
b) create "library" software which eases development for NDS.
3) GET THE MESSAGE OUT!

Novell seems to be doing #1 and #2 right now...#3 is very arguable.

Peter J Strifas
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