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Technology Stocks : Keane The leading y2k service provider

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (1158)4/27/1999 1:42:00 AM
From: Mark Marcellus  Read Replies (2) of 1316
 
I am very interested to hear the bearish case

I bought Keane a couple of weeks ago so I'm not sure I could put forward a bearish case, but I do have a couple of concerns. First, before Y2K began in earnest, profit margins hovered around 5%. In 1997 it went up to 7%, and it's been double digits ever since. As the Y2K business winds down, I will be watching very closely to see how this affects the margins. Second, the founder and CEO is 67 years old. He also has two sons in upper management. As far as I can tell, the company hasn't said much about succession plans. One person claiming to be a member of Keane management posted on line that John Keane is not planning to retire for at least 10 years and is in excellent health. Be that as it may, excellent companies have been known to fail due to succession problems, or when a founder has stayed on too long.

Those are the only significant negatives I can come up with. I don't think either is serious enough to discourage one from investing in the company, especially at these prices.

FWIW,

Mark
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