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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP
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To: Joe Wagner who wrote (1349)4/27/1999 2:35:00 AM
From: Clarksterh  Read Replies (1) of 5853
 
Re Telepresence - It may eventually happen, but there are some big hurdles to get over before we get there.

1) Need to construct a computer representation of what is being seen. This involves not just resolving paralax effects, but if you really want the user to have the ability to change perspective it also involves filling in detail that can't be seen. This filling in must be based on knowledge of how the world should look. To do all of this at a resolution as good as that of even a current TV show is probably at least 10 years away.

2) Once you have constructed the computer rep, you will need a way to compress it, or alternatively send data at 20 or 30 times (?) uncompressed digital video rates (i.e. uncompressed telepresence will be many 100's of Mbps). MPEG compression (video) is a power hog which only 4 or 5 years ago required very expensive special built computers, and I believe that such compression of a 3d construct is probably vastly more complex. Again, at the resolution of a TV show this is probably 10 years away(?).

Both of these processes are already started in some ways (VRML, video games, ...), but they are a long way from real time and TV quality.
Any comments?

Clark

PS I'm not sure I'd want to actually use telepresence. Ever been on one of those hydrolic(sp?) movie rides. A lot of green people at the end - including myself.
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