Scott,
I agree with you, a lot hinges on what NOVL management does in the next year or two. As you probably know, NOVL is currently searching for a CEO. We'll just have to see if they find the right man or woman for the job. They've made some pretty bone-headed plays in the past (ie. WordPerfect), so nothing's guaranteed.
For the first time in their history, NOVL has some stiff competition in their home arena, Intel-platform networking. And, worst of all, it's from the best high tech marketer in history, Microsoft. But there may be some light at the end of the tunnel. I've been reading some articles lately in network trade rags about NT's weaknesses, and some major installations are pulling out and going back to Novell. As I said previously, Novell is the only network operating system that can handle large enterprises. NT does not scale well above a few hundred users.
I also agree with you about there being low downside risk to this stock. Geez, how much lower can it go? NOVL might lanquish in the teens for another couple of years before climbing out of its rut. If that's the case, I think I could afford to put some money there.
But I'm brand new to this game and so far have put no money where my mouth is. I will continue to do some research (I've ordered their latest quarterly report), but think I will eventually take the plunge on this stock.
Good luck, and thanks for responding to my post.
John |
