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Technology Stocks : FirstWave Technologies (FSTW)
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To: Shege Dambanza who wrote (1078)4/27/1999 11:45:00 AM
From: Russian Bear  Read Replies (1) of 9677
 
<<...assessment of stock price on Nov 1, 1999:
Probability of stock price < $1: 10%
Probability of stock price < $2: 40%
Probability of stock price < $3: 70%
Probability of stock price < $4: 80%
Probability of stock price < $5: 90%
Probability of stock price < $6: 99%>>

Shege,

My gut feeling is that your probability distribution function does not reflect variance to a sufficient extent. I have to believe, unfortunately, that there is a >10% probability of FSTW falling below $1 by November. Likewise, a stock price >$6 should be more than 1% likely.

RB
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