Adobe has taught me a good lesson: Hang in there with your dogs, because eventually every dog has its day. Remember Dvorak's column signaling the end of Adobe? That was on Feb. 23. Since then, Adobe has had a blowout earnings report and announced more to come in '99. Its share value has rocketed about 40%.
Enjoy reading Dvorak's column again to see how wrong he was:
From PC Magazine,
February 23, 1999
The Future of Adobe
By John C. Dvorak
One of the most interesting companies in the computer
industry is Adobe Systems. Founded by former Xerox
PARC researchers, Adobe is going through an identity
crisis and suffering from isolationism, which leaves it
open to attack from Microsoft. The company's future is
not secure.
Microsoft's competitive behavior in various market segments is scrutinized, but
not many people have noticed that the company is slowly moving toward one of
the few consumer market segments left to conquer: image editing. Alvy Ray
Smith (the graphics superstar and the person originally behind Pixar) is the point
man in the development of Microsoft PhotoDraw, a serious challenger to the
various Adobe PhotoDeluxe packages. I was particularly impressed with
PhotoDraw 2000.
Adobe fought back after PhotoDraw 2000, though, with Adobe ImageStyler, the
most phenomenal software package I've encountered in years. Though
ImageStyler is obviously derived somewhat from Adobe Photoshop, it has
streamlined and unique capabilities impossible to imagine in Photoshop. With
ImageStyler you can create an amazing JavaScript-based Web page in minutes.
Go to my home page to see one that was done in about half an hour. Simply
put, it's a killer product!
But have you heard much about ImageStyler? Probably not, and this is Adobe's
problem. Its marketing and PR efforts (which are still mired in the Mac world) are
mediocre at best. This is partially due, I believe, to the increased isolation of
both John Warnock and Charles Geschke. I began to notice this on a visit I
made to the company about a year or so ago; the facility had so much security
that it looked more like an armed camp than a Silicon Valley campus. It was a
stark contrast to open-air places such as Nortel, with its dramatic architecture.
This isolationism at Adobe is present at all levels, including, apparently, e-mail. I
used to have an occasional lunch with John and Charles, for example, but
recently I was told by a PR woman that this would be impossible without her. No
matter what I said (and this went on for a while), she said no. Trying to send
e-mail to Warnock concerning this proved fruitless, as he never returned my
messages. I suspect he never saw them.
It's not that I expect every executive to return my messages, but I do expect it
from people I know personally. Steve Ballmer still does! The retreat of the top
executives makes Warnock look as if he's missing in action, in much the same
way that the marketing for ImageStyler is missing in action. The whole company
seems like a rudderless ship.
I believe a lot of the isolationism comes from the fact that Charles Geschke was
kidnapped by terrorists a few years ago and pretended that it didn't bother him
too much. It spooked everybody in the Valley. The isolationism of this twosome
developed slowly, but it began at that time. This is in stark contrast to Billionaire
Bill, who seems to be everywhere.
I fear for the future of Adobe. The company's product line is a shambles. Acrobat
is a complete waste of resources, yet Adobe clings to it. FrameMaker seems to
be a product the company bought and then lost interest in. What was the point?
PageMaker, another product Adobe bought, is never talked about anymore, as
Quark seems to keep its buzz going. Adobe owns the high-end font market, but
so what? Its forays into video editing have gone nowhere. Only Photoshop and
Illustrator are dominant, and those are also high-end products for professionals.
I forgot all about Adobe Persuasion until I went to Adobe's Web site. Does
anyone ever buy this product? Nobody knows about ImageStyler but me. And
finally there's PhotoDeluxe, the dominant product. But it's just a matter of time
before Microsoft takes over the photo-editing software market. Right now Adobe
owns the OEM-bundled segment, as Microsoft takes over the retail segment.
Because pull-through is the name of the game in small-systems software, how
long will it be before Microsoft finds a way to poach on Adobe's territory?
Knowing the way Microsoft operates, I'd guess it won't be long. I assume all
Microsoft really has to do is find out who's in charge of Adobe's OEM sales and
make an offer that's impossible to refuse. This seems to be Adobe's talent
stronghold.
As I see things, Adobe is running on fumes and needs some serious rethinking
of its product and marketing strategies and PR efforts. I wish it luck.
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