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Non-Tech : ZOLT
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To: Todd King who wrote (141)3/3/1997 3:37:00 PM
From: aatkinson   of 970
 
Thanks for pointing out the relevant prior posts. I thought your analysis was interesting but I thought that the other analysis was too much like putting a micrometer onto the end of a rubber yardstick -- it's immaterial whether the energy costs are $.45 or $.65 a pound if the total market estimates are off by an order of magnitude.

I also reviewed the analysis of Stifel and Nicolaus and found it somewhat convincing. I have worked in the aerospace industry for over thirty years and have witnessed the attractiveness of composite materials, especially in a marine environment, It seem to me that the market for these materials is unlimited, if the price can be brought down.

S&N claim that there exists a $100M market with Zolteks existing customer base, which is three times their recent production. Zoltek's recent 1/4ly figures ending 12/96 show $22M sales, and the growth rate is being maintained. Most analyst project abouut $1.20 for next year meaning Zoltek is trading at about 20 EPS against next years earnings.

To me the important figures are sales and resulting income. I think the market is continually expanding for low cost fiber and I beleieve Zoltek is out ahead of their competitors. S&N claim a potential market in 4 years of $800 M vice your Novenmber estimate of $36M; my understanding is that Zoltek is near the $36M now.

Have you seen any more recent analysis.

Thanks for your thought-provoking posts; good luck in all your investments.
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