AI, i've traded in and out of amzn several times since the post you're referring to. as to my current view, the whole sector looks a bit tired here, which is the usual pattern once the earnings reports are in. regarding amzn itself, much depends on whether the old (january) high will essentially hold as a support level and if i see some accumulation around that level. too early to say. i have watched amzn options recently and have noted that there is remarkably little speculation in calls ahead of the earnings report. this is usually a bullish sign. still, there is significant open interest parked at the may 200 and may 230 strikes, which will be difficult to overcome. to enter into positions ahead of the earnings(or rather revenues)report seems a bit of a gamble to me. my feeling at this time is that since there seems to be such wide-spread consensus that the stock will sell off afterwards, it may not happen after all. also from the information i have, there are widely differing views as to what to expect. you are basically echoing the stance of j.murphy of the california technology newsletter, while on the other end of the spectrum you have k.benjamin of banc boston saying that he is looking for a very strong report. btw, while i am writing this, i see reasonably good-sized bids coming in at the aforementioned support level (around 199). if the support is broken decisively, i'd turn short term bearish as well, in which case i'd rather go outright short,the puts are too expensive. still, it is too early to take a stance.
regards,
hb |
