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Technology Stocks : Citrix Systems (CTXS)

CTXS 103.90

0.0%

Nov 2 5:00 PM EST

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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (6467)	4/28/1999 11:54:00 AM
From: Scott Overholser	Read Replies (1) of 9068

hey folks - you won't find me defending ag edward's 24 month price target of $1,000. the only thing that i believe about long-range forcasts is that they are almost always wrong. i will investigate and post my results in a few days or whenever i do actually find some information. however, take the other side of the argument - for what reasons would ctxs reach that price level in 24 months? look at the recent qcom fiasco with analyst estimates. some of you may scoff but i don't think ctxs is much different than qcom. citrix and qualcomm both just presented at the pda event in chicago. didn't motorola just license ica? i can't remember. also, 77 of the fortune 100 companies are citrix customers. how long do you think it'll be before all those little wireless pda (palm, win-ce, or whatever) devices have ica built into them? okay, suppose a forward pe of 50 (it's not that unreasonable.) that'd require earnings of $20 in fy2001. i really have no opinion on the viability of $20 eps for fy2001. i have performed absolutely zero quantitative fundamental analysis. if someone could figure out how many copies of win2k will be purchased for terminal server deployments and used the datapro attach rate of 60% a rough number could be derived for metaframe revenues for the next couple of years.

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