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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model

EBAY 80.83

+1.0%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Jing Qian who wrote (2976)	4/28/1999 12:15:00 PM
From: gizelle otero	Read Replies (1) of 7772

Understand your position completely. However, even if we are talking about another "Industrial Revolution", it would be impossible to invest in the long-term winners from this revolution. They do not exist yet. Radio was the Internet of the Victorian Era (see the fine book "The Victorian Internet", 1998). Radio was a transformational technology in it's time, and radio stocks were bid up to the stratosphere during that era. However, none of those early radio companies even exist anymore, and the stocks of those early companies which rose 1,000-10,000% during the first 5 years of radio went down 80-90% a couple of years later. They all went bankrupt or were replaced by other players. I have no doubt that the internet is every bit as important today as radio was then. It is an amazing technology that will transform the world. But I have no doubt (either) that eBAY, Amazon, @Home, AOL, and all the rest will decline more than 75% from today's price within the next 2-3 years and be replaced by other companies in the future. The money has BEEN made on the internet stocks. It is all OVER but the crying at this point.

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