Transaction Systems Architects (TSAI) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Transaction Systems Architects (TSAI)

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To: Benny Baga who wrote (40)	4/28/1999 1:16:00 PM
From: NotNeiderhoffer	Read Replies (1) of 63

Benny, Just got back from the desert and feeling limber. The hot rock massage at the Biltmore is just what the doctor ordered to cope with the aggravation of earnings season. I have not had a chance to pick through the TSAI earnings release fully but you might notice that they earned more money in the three month period than CKFR has earned in three years. Of course they came in a penny ahead of the consensus number in the quarter but a few analysts took a nickel off their Sept 2000 FY estimates due to the Y2K thang. Not a perfect quarter but I can live with it. Fortunately the monthly license fees carried the day and I will just have to deal with a stock that is back to where I bought it. I hope we will see a little acceleration in revenue once we get thru the Y2K issue and maybe the stock will firm up in advance of that. I was on your beloved CKFR CC today and see they also mentioned the Y2K moratorium at the banks. Of course CKFR management guided down numbers again, which is the most predictable thing about their earnings and guidance. Back in the fall CKFR was pegged to earn 55 cents in FY 2000. You might want to adjust your go forward numbers as it looks like they will be hard pressed to earn 30 cents over the next four quarters and maybe they will put up 35-40 cents in FY 2000. The sell side analysts are busy "fine-tuning" their estimates down and raising their price targets. Congrats. Well, at least they grew revenue 2% year over year. Oops, that is not fair as divested businesses mask what is really 20%-21% year over year growth, just shy of TSAI's revenue growth. Unfortunately, CKFR's portal based business is being pushed out a few months as well but you can't really pin mangement down on this issue. They ended the conference call abruptly (not even an hour!) and maybe did not want to address the YHOO takeover rumors. Of course there were some positives in the call and maybe in a year we will know what they are capable of earning, assuming their space does not get to crowded with the likes of IBM and such. No doubt subscriber growth was good and I would like to bank over the net myself. Maybe you would find it ironic that my company accounted for about $200K of CKFR's $63 million in quarterly revenue due to the APL relationship we have. I might add that the APL system is down right now and the poor people that have to deal with it here are constantly pulling their hair out. We are one of their oldest and largest clients. They are not our favorite vendor. If you talk to the young guy at CKFR who was briefly CFO last year (Jim Douglas I think?) tell him I said hi. We went sailing last July off Nantucket and had a chance to talk about the company. I was a little uneasy about putting money to work in the stock at that time and watched in horror as it traded down. You might note I did not go to the CKFR thread and say OUCH during those dark days last fall, which was before management reinvented themselves as an internet company working with unnamed portals believed to be YHOO. I also had questions about management's judgement as here I was on a sailboat and the CFO from CKFR neglected to bring beer. We talked about the SI/CKFR conferece scheduled for August at the wonderful Ocean Reef club and I graciously shared a few budweisers with Jim and his bubbly blond wife who seems like a total sweetheartand and was even a bit flirtatious on Jim's frequent trips to the head. Anyway if you have anything to add to the TSAI thread feel free but i get very annoyed when people show up pulling the ouchy stuff. I like this name despite the lack of portal deals and daily press releases and will continue monitor and reevaluate my investment in this company. Maybe I will get spanked but I can live with multiple contraction and think the company wil survive well into the new millenium. Tell Gintel I said hi and good luck with that stock of yours. I have had your thread bookmarked since I joined SI and get warm and fuzzy when I read those posts. You people have created a real sense of community and that is why SI and the Net are great. I enjoy SI so much I even bought GNET last December and it has turned out to be the best Christmas present I ever gave myself. I might even buy CKFR on weakness. Stranger things have happened. NotsureifIhaveheardthelastofyouNeiderhoffer

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