Looks like if MVIS can produce a consumer product for $291 they could be the "screen" for the future
>9043.2 Story of the Issue
***4th Wave Releases Information Appliance Market Report -
WAVE Report Readers Get Special Discount
4th Wave, Inc. has released the only comprehensive
analytical strategic assessment of the Information Appliance
(IA) market and it predicts continuing difficult times for
the PC. The result of a multiclient study, this report goes
beyond just Information Appliances and examines what it
describes as the fifth era of computing. This emerging
market will completely shape computing in the 21st century.
The report looks out to 2009.
The report develops new approaches to evaluating the
strategic market forces and these include.
An evaluation of the role of computing in the U.S.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the implications this has
to the emerging market.
The development of a GDP Price Elasticity Line which
predicts the upper limit to what consumers will pay for
products and services, irrespective of technology.
The use of two new ratios, Service to Product and
Content to Product, that show the importance of casual media
as a driver in the emerging market.
The analysis shows an ASP of $70 for products or a
service cost of $23/month.
Conclusions from the study include the following.
The key factors which will drive the emergence of the
market will be Free MIPS (Millions of Instructions per
second) of computing power and Pervasive Connectivity.
Home markets will drive the next era of computing.
A significant part of the markets will be based on
services and not products.
The market will be predatory and those under threat
include the broadcasters, wireline telephony and cable as a
video service.
Winning products and services will be those that ease
the burden of individual lives through technology. This is
fundamentally no different than the role that technology
played 100 years ago when electricity, the automobile, the
telephone and radio communications emerged.
The market is not about the Internet but its use as a
platform for the delivery of products and services.
Virtually all companies that dominate the PC market
today will face significant business challenges in adapting
to this market.
The set-top box is too narrowly focused and will be
replaced by a new service that is called the home assistant.
Cellular phone services, especially those emerging from
3G, 3rd generation, can provide a platform for new services;
The market will be segmented based on four locations:
individual, home, automobile and work. Each have its own
unique characteristics and needs.
The current focus on System-on-a-Chip (SOC)
semiconductor technology remains at too low a level to meet
the requirements of the fifth era markets.
Low prices and the drive to give away devices will
force a functional component approach to the market where
products and services only use the components that are
required.
The government will have a much higher level of
involvement in these new markets than in the PC market.
The PC market will level off and decline as these new
services and products emerge. At the same time the PC will
evolve into what is described as the Future Computer whose
central component is a screen. The FC will be only one
product point in a continuum of products that have free MIPS
and pervasive connectivity and use only those components
essential to the task requirements.
The network is the platform for the services and as
such, a major level of infrastructure activity is required
to build a robust network which can manage home assistants
and casual media, to name only two.
The early market opportunities are in the development
of the underlying infrastructure and include communications,
networking, operations, applications, hosts and platforms,
and technology. Infrastructure development favors large
technology centric companies.
In order to achieve mass market scale and ROI a number
of product opportunities need proprietary implementations,
yet, public policy increasingly sees this as an invitation
to monopoly status and public policy is moving in the
opposite direction - fostering open markets where
competition is encouraged from the beginning.
A major and complex network infrastructure that will be
required that is at least a factor of ten more complex than
the telephony infrastructure based on SS7.
The winning markets are those that focus on a high
service or content ratios. This will also enable devices to
be bundled with the services at no apparent cost to the
consumer. There are parallels with the product and service
transitions which have taken place in cellular phones and
DBS services as they went from a combined product and
service offering to a pure service market.
Product and service concepts are developed which
illustrate the needs of this market.
The forecast of the market includes the following.
The total market rises to $5 billion by 2001, crosses
$20 billion in 2008, and reaches $23 billion in 2009.
The cross over from products to services as the
dominant market happens in 2003.
The services market in 2004 is $8.3 billion and the
product market is $4.8 billion.
By 2005 Services represent 77% of the market.
In 2004 the rank order services are: Personal;
Control/Management; Information Centric, Education;
Entertainment and Media Centric.
By year 2009 this shifts to: Media Centric;
Entertainment; Information Centric; Personal;
Control/Management and Education.
The ASP for products begins at $291 in 1999 and drops
to $119 by 2004 and lands at $55 in 2009.
Services remain fairly stable beginning at $217
(annual) in 1999 and going as low as $134 in 2006 and ending
at $140 in 2009.
The fifth era of computing is going to be radically
different than the PC era. This is essential as computing
becomes pervasive and the transition is made to the markets
of the 21st century.
4th Wave's Information Appliance Market Report is available
now for $2,495. Until May 10th, WAVE Report readers qualify
for a special discount of $1,995. To qualify the order form
or phone request must cite the issue of this report -
WAVE9043.2 to qualify.
More information about the report and 4th Wave, Inc. can be
found at:
fourthwave.com |
