Herm,
HELP! I'm confused.
I pulled up a chart on HWP as I was reading your post and began to wonder what you were looking at. When I looked last night, my chart showed still diverging BBs with the bottom creeping down (no upturn), and RSI at 73, the highest it has been since last February where a similar pattern signaled the beginning of a rather steep Withdrawal from the old high at 82. Add to that the 2+ point pull back from yesterday's high at 81+ before easing back up to the close, and the DOW getting awfully close to 11000 and likely to encounter resistance. With my relatively limited experience, but trying to absorb all I can from this thread, and others, I concluded that HWP is most likely headed south, in spite of the relatively low P/E.
To double check, I followed your link to iqc and found that as you said the chart there shows the lower BB turning up. I guess that the difference between charts has to be different periods for calculating the BB, or a different sigma factor, but I don't see what iqc uses. My chart uses 20 days with a sigma factor of 2. One of the things that concerns me about T/A is the sensitivity of finer features of the indicators to the parameters we set, and this seems to be a case in point. Can you adjust the parameters at icq? If so, what do you use? If not, do you know how they set them?
As I write this, today's action on HWP seems to hint at confirming my "prediction" of yesterday being the top. Isn't hindsight wonderful? Of course now that I've written it down I might have to show up tomorrow with egg on my face. |
