Hoping to clear things up.
My point on betting was rhetorical not actual, sorry, again.
Actually I like SFAM/IPEC I just don't think they are going to win at the CMP game. As Mr. Sam noted in an earlier thread, SFAM tools are adequate but...sometimes that doesn't get it. I own SFAM stock mainly because they are a buyout target and they are at or near book lately. When the tide rises, so will SFAM stock price.
The industry is littered with AMAT tools that everyone says are inferior but yet last time I looked they were around $4B or so in revenue. In short, so what. Who cares why you win, only if you win.
Regarding AMAT's PR machine, I'll only give you 2 examples. 1. They never publicly stated they got the Intel orders but even my mother knows that now. Passed opportunity #1. They OWN TSMC's CMP business and there was never 1 press release about it. Don't you think its possible they could be winning business in Korea and not telling anyone. Nothing says they have to make a press release.
Intel has bounced IPEC from all future oxide business in favor of AMAT. (Not Ebara, sorry if I confused you.) Although I have no specific numbers, I would guess that Intel, Micron and TI are AMAT's biggest customers. At $4B in revenue, Intel could buy $400M for AMAT and AMAT wouldn't have to disclose it. Think about it. $400M is bigger than most equipment companies. I was only illustrating that Intel, Micron & TI are big buyers of AMAT and will continue to support them.
On Cu, the SFAM Auriga system will not ever succeed (in its current configuration)with even adequate process results which is why I bet they drop it in favor of the far superior IPEC 776 for Cu.
I guess we'll all have to wait and see till the end of the year to see if my market share projections for CMP are correct.
One last thing, and this should stir things up around here...this may be the last boom year for CMP. The early models were based on 12 - 15 CMP steps per advanced device. Now with Cu damacene we may only see 8-10 steps. That changes all the market models.
You asked about my experience. I'm an industry guy with lots of CMP business behind me.
Good investing to you all. |
