RockyC,
<Hoping to clear things up.>
No need. I see your posts as being informative for some, though I would classify them, in all fairness and with all due respect, as more opinion than fact and lacking a bit of objectivity.
<My point on betting was rhetorical not actual, sorry, again.>
Don't understand what you mean, but it doesn't matter.
<Actually I like SFAM/IPEC I just don't think they are going to win at the CMP game.>
Your opinion. I wish you luck with it.
<As Mr. Sam noted in an earlier thread, SFAM tools are adequate...>
I believe you may have misquoted Mr. Sam. I don't believe he used the words "adequate." But my memory is in need of an upgrade and I am too busy to find Mr. Sam's post.
<but...sometimes that doesn't get it.>
I am not sure if I agree with this either, but it doesn't matter....price, COO, throughput, etc., all play roles in decision making. And not everyone picks the best tools. I think AMAT's general success in winning orders proves this point....while they do not offer the best tools, generally speaking, their competitors (particularly smaller ones) get hammered by AMAT's potential anti-trust behavior. This is well known too. Even my father knows about it. :~) Whatever.
<I own SFAM stock mainly because they are a buyout target and they are at or near book lately. When the tide rises, so will SFAM stock price.>
At the point the cycle kicks in to full gear, I may differ with you as to which stocks (AMAT v. small cap competitors) have the best potential return on a percentage basis. Whatever.
<The industry is littered with AMAT tools that everyone says are inferior but yet last time I looked they were around $4B or so in revenue.>
There are a lot of GM, Ford and Chrysler products out there, but tests show generally speaking that their quality is inferior to the Japanese, Germans, etc. What is your point? GM is one of the biggest companies in the US? Do they make the best cars?
<In short, so what. Who cares why you win, only if you win.>
Tell that to the big three in the 70's when they became out of synch with what the American market wanted. Sure consumers are more fickle, but your market share is not an "entitlement" just because you are a gorilla. In fact, in the tech sector, the bigger you get as a gorilla, the more apt you are to have some rival try and bring you down over the long run.
<Regarding AMAT's PR machine, I'll only give you 2 examples. 1. They never publicly stated they got the Intel orders but even my mother nows that now. Passed opportunity #1. They OWN TSMC's CMP business and there was never 1 press release about it.>
Does this AMAT-Intel marriage last forever until death do they part? I guess your mother knows a heck of lot more than I too....and some of my friends in the valley. Maybe it's time I get a new set of friends and family. :~)
<Don't you think its possible they could be winning business in Korea and not telling anyone. Nothing says they have to make a press release.>
Isn't the contra true too? Couldn't someone else be winning it there and not generating PR? Just curious? Maybe if you don't know, one of your friends or family can answer the question, since nobody I know has the answer. :~) Well, maybe they do and their not talking. :~)
<Intel has bounced IPEC from all future oxide business in favor of AMAT.>
Note that AMAT did NOT bounce SFAM. SFAM has a good rep from MY FRIENDS with Intel even if they didn't get this business that you and your mother know about and me and my friends are clueless. I think the new logo for IPEC will allow them to re-enter with a new product if they aren't in the running now. But then again, what do I know.
<(Not Ebara, sorry if I confused you.)>
No confusion on my part....I didn't write the post. :~)
<Although I have no specific numbers, I would guess that Intel, Micron and TI are AMAT's biggest customers.>
Overall? Or in specific areas, like CMP? If the later, I disagree one of the three listed by you.
<At $4B in revenue, Intel could buy $400M for AMAT and AMAT wouldn't have to disclose it.>
True. But if you know Intel, they will not let any supplier announce an order. They are very tight lipped about allowing their suppliers to generate a PR regarding orders, as they don't like to let any competitive edge slip out to the general public - see confidentiality agreements between Intel and its suppliers. Funny, even my mother even knows that. :~)
<Think about it. $400M is bigger than most equipment companies. I was only illustrating that Intel, Micron & TI are big buyers of AMAT and will continue to support them.>
As they will other suppliers. Don't think Intel has any interest in building up AMAT. Even my sister knows that. :~)
<On Cu, the SFAM Auriga system will not ever succeed (in its current
configuration)with even adequate process results which is why I bet they drop it in favor of the far superior IPEC 776 for Cu.>
And what your point is? I guess dumb old SFAM has no plans on integrating the best of IPEC with SFAM's own tools. :~) They must really be a silly bunch down there in Chandler. :~) Buying IPEC just to dilute their earnings, and wait for some white knight to save Mr. Farley et al.'s ass. :~) Somehow, I suspect SFAM stated their intentions clearly in their most recent 10Q I posted. I guess maybe they won't be resting on those ever so tiny laurels of their. :~) By the way, what do your friends at SFAM and IPEC say? You mentioned you have friends there, I'd love to hear from their spin as well if wouldn't mind. Are they members of SI? Can they comment on the impending DOOM? Are they looking for work as everyone at AMAT, as must be everyone else at SFAM-IPEC? :~)
<I guess we'll all have to wait and see till the end of the year to see if my market share projections for CMP are correct.>
You, me, our relatives, friends and the rest of the market. :~)
<One last thing, and this should stir things up around here...this may be the last boom year for CMP. The early models were based on 12 - 15 CMP steps per advanced device. Now with Cu damacene we may only see 8-10 steps. That changes all the market models.>
I will defer to Mr. Sam before I offer my rebuttal. I think this thread would benefit more greatly from his objectivity in this matter than my opinion however right or wrong it may be. In this debate, I admit having a degree of subjectivity, do you?
<You asked about my experience. I'm an industry guy with lots of CMP business behind me.>
Interesting. Can you say you work for a supplier or a semiconductor mfg? Don't mean to pry....if you can't answer no biggie....don't want you to get into trouble. Remember, this thread should be used for publically available information, not trade secrets, rumors, or those interested in pumping up the stock by way promulgating a PairGain factoid falsehood. :~)
<Good investing to you all.>
Likewise.
Just one man's spin.....SemiBull |
