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Technology Stocks : CSCO, COMS, BAY
CSCO 72.99-2.0%12:12 PM EST
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To: Andrew Won who wrote (40)5/20/1996 1:09:00 PM
From: matt gray   of 135
 
I agree with your analysis in general but disagree
over your point regarding broadband wireless. Wireless
bandwidth is a limited quantity. As bandwidth demands
increase the ability of Wireless to offer bi-directional
data and video may fall short. As the wants and needs
of individuals for increasing bandwidth increase the bandwidth
shortfall will increase. While its certainly adequate
for voice, and special data applications, I'm skeptical about its
widespread data applicability. People will come to expect highly bandwidth
intensive services. Furthermore with the cost of spectrum,
the cost to relocate existing 2 GHZ users, and the cost to deploy expensive
equipment and a large quantity of towers its questionalble how cost
competative a PCS based wireless provider will be. As the economies
of scale increase the wireline providers will reduce costs and have a
significant cost/performance advantage over the wireless providers for
internet and intranet access.

I wouldn't put my money into wireless service provider securities...too
much downside risk and the capital costs are too high. Its a losing
proposition and pipedream by the IXCs and venture capital people [sprint
spectrums, omnipoints, etc] to get access to local loop. Its not even clear
that these guys will be successful in displacing the existing AMPS
providers who are lowering their costs and increasing their coverage
nationally. PCS access will only make the equipment manufacturers rich.
Eventually the players who are still in existence may make some money,
but expect this to take place a long time from now.
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