Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: upanddown who wrote (43510)	4/29/1999 1:02:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) of 95453

John; ie: RIG --- yes, it is the ''enigma'' here I love it as such; They have about 18 Rigs coming off contract; sure they still have the most drilling days booked, but the Street is ignoring that and is seeing less upside earnings/dayrate power in the semisubs/deepwater and think that the jack up shallow water drillers will ramp earnings faster. While that all makes perfect sense; I think they are over-reacting to RIG's perceived weakness - they are still the most experienced ultra deep water drillers and they are refusing to low-ball bid their Rigs here - I think they will win with this strategy. Give me RIG SDC & FLC - my 3 drillers - they pretty much cover the spectrum - SDC looks solid as a rock - I'd love to see $17 bucks one more time - and thats probably the last time we'll see it that cheap....RIG one more time at $25-6 and FLC $7 7/8ths-$8 1/4 would be real nice... The major story shortly is how tempting will it be for OPEC to cheat... intial compliance is a given, but 3-4 months out could get real interesting..... OPEC cheating is the roadblock to OSX euphoria potentially --- Oil Traders and more importantly the Oil Majors Cap Ex-wise have to want to see 2-3-4 months of continued compliance before we are all clear ''sustainability-wise'' ... that is why Yammanni was talking down Oil - he knows this is the worst thing for OPEC - slow & steady would have been better for everyone...time will tell. It isn't so much about being right, or wrong; on what OPEC does ''cheating-wise'' - as no one can know - its sheer speculation; it is all about correctly reading what the Oil Pit Traders will do - how paranoid they get about cheating etc. - I'll be keeping my ear real close to any OPEC cheating sentiment, articles, commentary.... Deutsch Bank just launched the first volley today on ''cheating'' -- we'll see...if we hear comments from the Oil Pits on ''cheating'' - look out... bad news feeds on itself.

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