[Questionable research]
Jim --
I think I know where that guy got his statistics: Cimi Corp.
Here's the letter I wrote to the CEO of that august research firm, and within hours got a scathing response in which he informed me he was seldom if ever wrong.
<<<
Dear Mr. Nolle,
In a recent article by Margie Semilof on fast Internet access, I find your comments somewhat disturbing. Have you spoken with GTE or MCI or IBM or USWest or any of the ADSL vendors running tests around the world?
You are quoted as saying:
"Some analysts say vendors are hyping DSL services and cable modems
because they have a consumerish bent, but it's unlikely these services
will make any headway in 1997 or 1998.
"The sad truth is that there is no indication that any broad segment of the population wants the service enough to justify the deployment . . . Also, it's not clear that the Internet can deliver the data that these high speed modems will permit.
". . . a lot of carriers are unwilling to accept there is no broad
consumer market for these services. The telecommuter has a certain cost tolerance to adopt ADSL. If the services are priced too low, U S West won't generate revenue."
I attended the Robertson Stephens Technology Conference in San Francisco last week and spoke with Lennert Leader, CFO of AOL, Pat Weber, VP of TXN, and Phil White, CEO of Informix, and all concur the ADSL market is extremely strong and heating up faster than many realize. AOL is planning to migrate from 56K to ADSL along with USRX. TXN is estimating the ADSL market to be "hundreds of thousands by the end of 1997 and millions in 1998." Every major telecommunications company with whom I spoke validates these comments. To my knowledge all the major networking companies are also planning ADSL solutions.
A simple ADSL search at web sites for IBM, CSCO, COMS, USRX, and many others reveal amazing statistics.
>>>
I concluded by saying I thought he was disinformed and he responded, "I'm paid to be right, not to be exciting. Most of the time, as you would find if you researched my forecasts, I am."
Nothing like a little humility to go along with stellar research.
I considered writing back and asking him if he thought the city of Paris could be considered a broad segment of the population, but decided to let it drop.
Okay, time to hit the sack.
Night!
Pat
|
