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Technology Stocks : Qwest Communications (Q) (formerly QWST)
Q 82.04-1.7%3:59 PM EST

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To: Andmoreagain who wrote (3625)4/29/1999 4:29:00 PM
From: Mark Harjes  Read Replies (2) of 6846
 
Depends on what one means by 'success'...
1. Will Qwest be able to successfully build a high-bandwidth capability that will be highly-valued now and the future - almost certainly... indeed, they are well down that path.
2. Will that lead to continued high valuations by Wall Street? seems likely. Appears that this is the definition of success upon which current management is focused... the bandwidth is all, the provision of services and products on that bandwidth secondary. (Note: I'm not saying this is a mistake, but I do think that Qwest is attempting to imply a not-just-bandwidth focus that isn't there.)
3. Will Qwest ever be competitive in the residential long distance marketplace? doubtful, IMHO... actually, I don't believe Qwest really cares to be 'successful' here. Their efforts are minimal, the resources applied to this arena inadequate.
4. Will Qwest ever be more than a supplier of bandwidth to other entities that then provide services (consumer or B-to-B) that run over that bandwidth? Again, my take is that is not a serious goal, and won't be until another executive/management team has control over that bandwidth.

Long term, I think the real payoff for the investment and work now being placed into Qwest by investors and employees will come after the infrastructure is acquired by an entity capable of developing and marketing products and services... and of building, nurturing and rewarding a management/work-force committed to those goals. How many current investors (some/many?) and employees (fewer) will remain by then?

Until then, I expect to see Qwest's stock price to fluctuate as the commodity of 'bandwidth' is more-or-less highly valued, not as anything Qwest itself does to differentiate itself from LVLT (for example). I think this is why LVLT tracks QWST (or vice-versa) the way it does, they are both nothing more than proxies for a commodity right now. I DO believe that LVLT is more likely to break loose from that restriction as an innovator and provider of services and products than is Qwest. Maybe I'm just hoping that... don't know nearly as much about LVLT's operations as I do Qwest.

Just my $0.02

...mark
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