Today won't get the headlines - but it spoke volumes...
A very, very important day today. A solid reversal off of this a.m. Very impressive. Yes; Big - FGI had a nice volume day - a new high since the initial Sept - cycle here wasn't it ? That is important. This was FGI's most important day since Sept.
The real ''Mo-Mo'' individual investor money hasn't made its run here yet. Perhaps, we could get a push over 85 from the individual investor mo mo move ? C'Mon Sarge - fire up that keyboard & pump the 'patch (VBG) ! Let's get some tech & net money moving in here.
I still like taking profits on the major spikes and like buying on the major blowoffs - today was pivotal in that it spoke well of the continual cyclical support. Volatility in both directions is far from finished... didn't really catch anything to buy today - sold a little; so I am happy. Get to go fishing again tomorrow...
I guess Prudential beats Deutsche Bank in round I, but this is a 12 rounder after all (VBG).... bouncing back was good, but OSX 77 wasn't broken through and 85ish is Hamburger Hill (VBG); - are we gonna take it (osx 85) ? - or, are we going back to base camp 65-68 ? If we can't move our trading range up to OSX 65 to 85 from the past 4-peat of OSX 45- 72; then what good is $18 Oil ? Can't imagine that we can't take another stair step up here. A range of 65-68 to 85ish seems reasoanble here.
I still do not see anything between earnings periods to take us to OSX 100 in the next 60-90 days... We would have to blow through $20 Oil big time... I pray - that I blow that one ! The most important part of trading is being in a postion to still benefit even if you're wrong - if overweighting to E&P's and keeping 30% cash moving in & out - which so far has fortunately surpassed the OSX moves, is wrong - let me be wrong some mo...! OSX 100 - seems like an ice cube in hell compared to the dark days of August -September doesn't it ?
The ''hedged'' bet is still the E&P's imho; they deserve overweighting untill 150 GOM rigs at work (135+ & trending at least) and 325M boe in storage is broken. RIG PGO FLC are still far from overvalued .
Sadly, FLC's Webster will become a legend in absentia, if they move on to $4.00 eps by 2002 and pull this incredible story off... FLC still has the ability to be a homerun here... FLC has no worse earnings expectations than RDC, or ESV here; ESV is $20 now - without the deepwater premium/blue sky for the future - the potential for $20-25 FLC by this fall is not unrealistic here...
I sold some UPR today, some more CRK, some MRO - which I love long term; probably now about 65-70% invested after these sales. I am taking the trading approach with 1/3 of my money and will stay 65% in here... What I like the cash for, is the ''cheapies'' here - some E&P micro's in the sub $5 range.... damn, going to do some research on KEG here as well... Michael H & others made a good point on the 3rd tier companies here like TCMS, SESI - OMNI has to awaken from its coma etc...
I've been taking some profits in 1/3rd position sales. Hey, after today - maybe prudent to scale back to 1/4 of position sales. I like taking profits in these stair step rises; as I have not had a problem finding rotation ideas. Another thing, is a lot of posters talk about margin - which I use off & on; but I like ''not'' being fully invested in times like this; in case we get a CLB type of one day blow off - if I like the company; I want to be able to take a major position without having to sell stocks I still want to let run... not to mention the downside pain of a couple of back to back - down 5% days which can swing you down 30% in hours...
"STOPS"
Happel - also, a while back had a good idea on moving up ''stops'' tightly behind these gains. For anyone who prefers to not actively trade - tight, tight stops are the ticket - maybe give yourself the ability to absorb 5%, or a buck or two on a $20 stock... maybe limit your stop loss to not giving back more than a portion of recent gains etc... you won't be caught on the sidelines on a prolonged run and won't give back your gains on a major retracement...
hmmm; only see a few E&P micro's that I'm trying to build positions in here - I am really happy with the cards I'm holding here; might just sit and watch here for a while and wait for a big opportunity.
Is anyone else excited about buying anything here ? What looks good here ?- idea lists ?
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