An ASTN bull over at the Yahoo thread gave his take on ATG's earnings potential. I thought I would copy it and present it here and get your thoughts...Every once in a while you will find a serious post or two.
Earnings Estimates
by: MST_2000
7670 of 7697
These will be hard to come by because it is a function of (i) volumes generated using
the VTS system, (ii) how many other modules are introduced between now and the end
of Fiscal 2000 (3/31/01), and (iii) the capital costs associated with implementing new
modules (ePLOB, eAS, eMC, eOX, Croix and NextExchange) and how they go about
paying for it (new capital, debt, etc.) But let me take a stab based on what we know
about VTS alone.
1st quarter of FY99 (4/1/99 - 6/30/99) - $5-6 Million Loss (based on history)
2nd quarter of FY99 (7/1/99 - 9/30/99) - At an average of 10,000,000 shares per
trading day at $.02 per share (as they ramp up to FR's rediction of 20M per day),
$1,000,000 per week or approximately $13 Million in income against a 6 million
quarterly burn rate, for a 7 million profit for the quarter.
3rd Quarter of FY99 (10/1/99 - 12/31/99) - At an average of 15,000,000 shares per
trading day at $.02 per share (as they continue ramp up to FR's rediction of 20M
shares per day), $1,500,000 per week or almost $19.5 Million in income against an $8
million quarterly burn rate (increased due to increased system activity, etc.), or a profit
of $11.5 million per quarter.
4rd Quarter of FY99 (10/1/99 - 12/31/99) - At an average of 20,000,000 shares per
trading day at $.02 per share (as they meet FR's rediction of 20M shares per day),
$2,000,000 per week or almost $26 Million in income against a $10 million quarterly
burn rate, or a profit of $16 million for the quarter.
Year end synopsis/FY 1999 - 27 Million in net profits, or just over $1.00 per fully
diluted share.
Holes: First, there will be non-recurring costs in ramping up the newer modules, which
presumably will eat into the operating profits. But the Street tends to look at operating
income in this type of development stage company. Second, I have no idea if my "burn
rate" numbers are fair or accurate - they are historical and may be low. Third, I am not
sure if the $.02 per share charge will hold. The stated rate is $0.03, but we know they
will be discounting substantially, and there are royalties they will have to pay to the
PHLX (LOL), etc. Fourth, the volume is a wild stab (Personally, I suspect FR's
prediction was conservative, but who knows for sure). Fifth - this does not account
for the other subsidiaries, such Gomez - they appear to be self-sufficient as far as
capital goes, and may even generate positive net income (GA) and i doubt the other
subs will contribute much to the burn rate before they are seeking private placement
capital, so it may have little impact on earnings, but who knows.
If the VTS daily volumes are higher than predicted by FR, the numbers get dramatically
better, because, on the margin, extra income from shares traded do not cost that much
in terms of extra costs. If the numbers are lower, obviously everything changes. And
FY 2000 should be aggrssively better for a large number of reasons - most
significantly, all 4 quarters should be profitable, not just the last 3. All of this (ALL OF
IT) is just a back of the napkin guesstimate -- you are otherwise on your own (e.g., do
your own due diligence).
MST
|
