Buying the Leader
I can't begin to count how many times I've heard or read "buy AOL, YHOO, EBAY...put them away and forget about them. Well, today after the close I happened to look at EBAY and kicked myself for not being aware that it was trading up strongly, unlike most of the nets. Then I started looking at the chart.
For those of you that haven't been around for the last 10 or 12 thousand posts, November was just about as exciting as it gets on this thread. The nets were nuts. It was so long ago I think it was the first time Tim Luke was leaving SI, and was hanging out here.
As I remember it...Alien posted in maybe the first week of November that EBAY was spiking. Susan mentioned ONSL as a less expensive proxy for EBAY. Scott had ONSL on his list from the mid teens and informed everyone that it was a major position hold at 23. Well...many on this thread rode ONSL from 20 to 100 by Thanksgiving, and boy, were they thankful. By 60 or there abouts, Scott had it on his short list.
Look at them now. ONSL is selling for about 6 points higher than it was in the first week of November. EBAY is a split adjusted 188 points higher, and that's with a 50% and at least 2 25% drops in between. I hate to think how many points might have been made in EBAY trend lining it. Scott?
My point? There will be another net sell off. Perhaps we would all do well to stop chasing SPLNs (up 23 points) and COOLs (up 1 point) and EGGS (up 5 points)... pick our entry in AOL(up 110 points), YHOO (up 100 points), EBAY (up 188 points), or ATHM (up 95 points) and stick with the position until the trend reverses. Then enter again. And again. And again.
Jay |
