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Technology Stocks : Identix (IDNX)
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To: brad greene who wrote (13306)4/29/1999 10:36:00 PM
From: David  Read Replies (2) of 26039
 
Let's speculate on what may be coming . . .

Let's add near-term $10 scanners PLUS Compaq PLUS Hewlett-Packard or IBM PLUS Verisign. That equals Identix locking up a mass market in network authentication software before any of the possible competition really arrives on the scene.

Now we know why this merger took place. Identicator could not afford the extra year or two of financing and organization to do an IPO; by the time they got done, who knows who could be in the arena against them? With IDX as a business platform, this $10 scanner (and I hope our reporter heard that right) could be fielded much earlier. I assume Pieper and Fowler didn't just dream this up last week.

If Identix and Verisign want to announce some kind of Verisign+ product that both protects messages in flight and authenticates, then IDX's valuation will soon be similar to VRSN. Of course, VRSN is way too high right now, but that's a problem we could live with. And we really don't have a handle on the IDX business model; I only want us to break even on the hardware at that price point.

This scenario is possible. It makes a lot of sense. And there is an element of boldness about it that should attract some favorable analyst commentary. And if it's true, I expect some of the "moron" comments will be retracted. Fowler may have his drawbacks, but as far as I can tell, he has done brilliantly in choosing his acquisitions.
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