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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: Bill F. who wrote (37415)4/29/1999 11:09:00 PM
From: Terry Whitman  Read Replies (1) of 86076
 
Enlightened comments by you here-

>>Data game... We had a supposedly important economic statistic this morning, the employment cost index. The reason it's important is because Greenspan supposedly likes it. Anybody who thinks government numbers are going to show anything untoward doesn't really understand the present administration, as the economic data is so massaged. If you look at the CPI calculations and the way that they're calculated, there's no way we'll ever see inflation because price hikes are always adjusted for "improvements."

These people have an agenda not to show any inflation. That's not to say we have a whole lot now as generalized CPI inflation is not raging, but it's certainly not as low as the government makes it out to be - just ask anybody who writes checks for things. Having said all that, the last place anybody's going to see it is in the employment cost index, because everybody's getting paid with stock options.

So the thinking is, we have a tight labor market and no inflation and that's what makes everyone feel so good. But I submit to you that the inflation that exists is largely bound up in the stock market and the housing market. We've had plenty of inflation - it's just gone into paper assets. By the way, just think of where the employment rate would be if people didn't have stocks to day trade and actually had to get jobs. So the rosy economic scenario is nothing other than a $15 trillion stock market. That's really the whole story.

As long as we're on the subject of the ECI and government statistics, has anybody noticed that any time and for whatever reason the market gets in trouble and we have an economic statistic coming out, it always manages to be just what the doctor prescribed? I'm sure that's just a coincidence, but it has happened about 100 times in a row.
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There are a few of us that understand that inflation kills bull markets. We will be rewarded for that bit of knowledge. <g>
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