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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?
MSFT 476.93+0.6%Nov 25 3:59 PM EST

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To: Stormweaver who wrote (21860)4/29/1999 11:29:00 PM
From: RTev  Read Replies (1) of 74651
 
My two main concerns on buying MSFT ...

Both DOJ results and competition (such as it is) are valid concerns, but despite it all, MSFT still seems like a good long-term investment.

DOJ: It's highly unlikely that DOJ would ask for a breakup of Microsoft and only slightly less likely that Microsoft would follow Ma Bell's lead in breaking itself up as a settlement. But if lightning did strike and a breakup somehow happened, it would be a great time to hold Microsoft stock. I'm convinced that the component parts of MSFT are far more valuable than the whole.

It would be much like AT&T's recent voluntary divestiture of Lucent. The breakup has energized both companies, allowed them to focus on their very different markets, and hasn't done too badly for stockholders.

The most dangerous result of the case (for the long term) is that Microsoft will keep on fighting it forever (just as IBM did in its case in the 70s and 80s). That would sap energy and a little bit of money (since it costs no more than hundreds of millions a year) from the company and would distract them from the changes that must be made for the changing markets.

And Linux? It will surely slow the growth of NT in the server market and lower its revenue, but is a long way from having any serious effect on the desktop OS market. The advantage is that CE is beginning to get into enough devices that it may show offsetting revenue growth.
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