Dale, I'm a little puzzled by your post. As you know, I believe Schering's intent in gaining Mexican approval and shipping product there was to gain what could be valuable marketing information at a low cost. When I summarized my hypothesis in Post #6409, you replied in Post # 6411 that mine was a reasonable view of the facts, but just as speculative as the shorts' interpretation of events. What was clear to you then you now say "will never be clear to anyone short the stock."
It is my belief that my position on this is much less speculative than your position that the lack of sales in Mexico proves Vasomax is ineffective. I believe that, because my position takes into account the fact that Schering never did anything to try to sell the drug in Mexico. Your position ignores that glaring reality. I have asked more than once for any evidence that Schering aggressively or even moderately tried to market Vasomax in Mexico. The lack of any response to that tells me that I'm probably right. If such evidence exists, I would then be forced to change my views, but apparently no evidence is there.
If Schering was so intent on penetrating this third world market, why was Vasomax not able to be found in most Mexican pharmacies? Where are the advertisements and commercials that will surely appear in the U.S. and Europe? Where is evidence of a serious push by Schering's Mexican sales and marketing machine? Does Schering even have a Mexican marketing machine?
If you want to question Schering's plan on this, well, go ahead, but I suspect they know what they are doing. I'm not sure what you judge the potential of the Mexican market to be for an ED medication, but I think Schering judges it to be insignificant. The real prize is the U.S., western Europe and Japan.
Hanging your hat on Mexico as proof that Vasomax won't sell, strikes me as not much more than wishful thinking. I hope you are not basing your investment decisions on such faulty logic.
Good luck,
Bruce |
