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Gold/Mining/Energy : Harken Energy Corporation (HEC)
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To: Robert Sanders who wrote (4365)4/30/1999 10:01:00 AM
From: Raymond Clutts  Read Replies (2) of 5504
 
I think your logic is sound that everyone "involved" benefits from oil development and extraction. But who remains "involved" is the real question.

These rebels are not in it to get a piece of the pie and until they see some benefits, impeding or holding development hostage is their best means towards being cut in for a slice. I think that analysis of their self-interest is consistent without regard to whether there are any remaining committed Marxists among the group or whether they have degenerated into pure banditry (as your Yahoo source describes their activity).

I agree that the logic of furthering their own self interests usually wins over the "masses" (I hate Marxist analysis and terminology and use them only for illustration). But, pipelines are notoriously vulnerable to sabotage. It doesn't take many disaffected rebels to stop transportation and it takes a great many troops to secure the length of one.

The Columbian government's quandry (and consequently our own)is that
you cannot cut the rebels in for revenue without also conceding their legitimacy and authority in the areas where they operate. Also by cutting them in they give them resources to continue their operations instead of trying to destroy their operations and ending the problem. I don't think compromise is a realistic alternative for the Columbian government or military at this point.

I also don't think that these problems are insurmountable but from what I read the Columbian government conceded control over these areas and is now trying to reestablish its authority. It will take a while and the pipelines and the revenue that their contents produce will likely prove to be a focus of rebel strikes in time.
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