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I suspect the current reshuffling of the G* launches are due to delays in export approvals from the State Department. G* probably only had 12 birds in Kazakhstan which were used for the first 3 launches and the next 4 birds were not ready to ship from Italy until after March 15th.
Since the authority to approve export permits transferred from the Commerce Department to the State Department on March 15, no new permits have been approved. The problem appears to be the lack of a qualified staff to review the export requests. Until the State Department fills these staff positions, no exports will be approved.
This reminds me of last summer when BS announced that the Zenit-2 launch delay from July to September was because they wanted to make sure everything was perfect for the launch. After the launch failure we found out that the delay was due to a 2 month hold up of the export license by the Commerce Department for the birds being shipped from Italy. Hopefully this issue will be resolved before the ChinaSat-8 deal gets cancelled and the next Soyuz launch comes up.
The following is my latest launch schedule (04/30/99)
May 2, Orion-F3 on Boeing Delta 3, Cape Canaveral
May 15, fourth Globalstar mission on Soyuz, Kazakhstan
June 11, third Globalstar mission on Boeing Delta 2, Cape Canaveral
June 15, Telstar 7 on Atlas IIIA, Cape Canaveral
July 1, fourth Globalstar mission on Boeing Delta 2, Cape Canaveral
July 15 ??, fifth Globalstar mission on Boeing Delta 2, Vandenberg ??
August 9, sixth Globalstar mission on Boeing Delta 2, Cape Canaveral
September, first Globalstar mission on Arianespace Ariane 4, Kourou (Backup)
September, fourth Globalstar mission on Soyuz, Kazakhstan
September/October, Orion 2 on Arianespace Ariane 4, Kourou
October, fifth Globalstar mission on Soyuz, Kazakhstan
November, sixth Globalstar mission on Soyuz, Kazakhstan
November 9, seventh Globalstar mission on Boeing Delta 2, Vandenberg
December 21, eighth Globalstar mission on Boeing Delta 2, Cape Canaveral
NOTES:
The Ariane 4 is a backup.
The Orion 2 launch is not firm due to a dispute with Eutelsat. See published comments below.
"However, a possible dispute may be looming with **Loral** Orion, which plans to place a satellite at the 12 degrees West position. **Loral** said in its annual report that it could encounter frequency co- ordination difficulties: "If Eutelsat launches a replacement satellite into the 12.5 degrees West orbital location, it would interfere with the Orion 2 satellite at 12 degrees West. We have entered into discussions with Eutelsat to resolve the issues relating to this orbital location; however, we cannot guarantee a successful resolution."
Eutelsat's filing for 12.5 degrees pre-dates **Loral** Orion. Eutelsat confirmed that a preliminary co-ordination discussion has taken place between the two companies and a Eutelsat source agreed the issue was "sensitive".
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