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Technology Stocks : USWeb (USWB)

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To: R. Bond who wrote (825)4/30/1999 2:05:00 PM
From: Rick  Read Replies (4) of 1188
 
Sorry to be brash, but here goes:

1) This is the problem with the greater fool theory of investing. You never know when the games up and you are going to be made the fool. Looks like the games up - at least for a while.

2) This is also the problem with companies that are making lots of acquisitions. The street loves 'em for the banking fees. The street actively markets them with insincere reccomendations. The street knows when to go short, selling stock to the greater fool theory investors.

3) Programmers or graphic design artists that can bill out, on average, $148,000 per year are not worth $1,200,000 each (number based on $30 stock price; obviously this is changing daily). Do the math - I know that mathematics is not a very popular component of investing these days, but it tends to come in handy in situations like these.

4) It just ain't an internet stock, folks. Internet stocks are companies that use the scale and efficiencies of the internet to sell it's core products: books, stock trades, toys, financial services, etc. Unfortunately for USWB each additional sale requires hiring and managing a human being to replenish it's inventory - this is not an internet model, this is a services model.

USWB is in a hot business. Shaw is a credible and capable leader - in particular I like his straightforward professional approach. But, it's trading on a good story, and not on it's ability to generate returns. I have no doubt that USWB will reverse directions at some point, but for now the shorts are in business. Way too many shares outstanding to ever get the type of short squeeze in the year after IPO.

Rick.
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