< $18 Oil is a ceiling and not a floor > 5 different Brokers downgrade the oilpatch today
Add the following Brokerage Houses to the downgrade list today alone:
Ing Barings
Schroeder
Lehman Bros.
DLJ
Paine Webber
... to the list started by Deutsche Bank - there have been a few others over the last few days - but I won't ''pile on'' here... 5 more today alone - all on price appreciation.
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biz.yahoo.com
<<One of Young's rationales was that he sees $18.00 a barrel for oil as ''a ceiling, not a floor,'' and predicts that the market will be disappointed when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reneges on its pledges and sells above the recently agreed quotas to take advantage of the 70-percent rise in oil prices in the last two months.
Frank Knuettel, oil analyst at PaineWebber, agreed.
''History has shown there should be doubts...When prices absolutely collapse like they did earlier this year, the compliance level is likely to be higher, at least initially, than in many other recent agreements,'' Knuettel said. ''We see the sector getting frothy,'' Knuettel told Reuters.>>
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Well; Big Bull - I'm just like FOX Network - I ''report'' - you decide (VBG) - however someone made a brilliant comment earlier - on ''trading the market'' not the predictions - EXACTAMUNDO !
I don't care how many ''old news'' headlines ANYONE cares to cut & paste - the Street and these analysts above control the Stockprices here - not us small fries ! ANYONE who is NOT positioning themselves in relationship to this sentiment move by those with the ''real'' POWER to move markets - had better get a clue !
Again; one can be in total disagreement with the now, '' growing by the day'' list of Brokerage Houses who are falling in line here with downgrades based on price appreciation - ie: too far - too fast. But, the key is - if you ARE in disagreement - AND you ''really'' are putting your money where your mouth is (not just pom pom waving) then you had better be using tight-assed stop limits, or be positioning yourselves in the 2nd & 3rd tier companies that are still undervalued in comparison to the top tier Mo-Mo fav's like the CAM's - SII's HAL's and FGI's imho.
Anyone who is jumping on the bandwagon, or adding to positions on these euphoric upswings - had better temper their enthusiasm with a little history here....
Does anyone here not see the signal of the Intnl Oil majors getting sold off & downgraded here as not being a warning sign for the OSX stocks ? - HELLO ! - remember, unlike the E&P's - the OSX stocks need for the Intnl Oil's to be enjoying rich valuations, good news and most importantly - they need to feel all warm & fuzzy about the SUSTAINABILITY OF OIL PRICES - STUPID ! - before they start cutting loose the purse strings that move the patch...
We just had a one month record setting run of 50% here in the Oilpatch ! - how Gloom & Doomish to be expecting the Institutions to be fighting each other to the door - ''if'' we see a spate of profit taking feed on itself here... sorry, I saw this euphoria as a selling opportunity - I checked my worries at the cash register - now once again; I'm sitting here just waiting patiently for my next opportunites to unfold...
The volatility here is far, far from over - quite the contrary in fact ! Doing things like buying on margin here, chasing these run ups and not being afraid to lock in profits is just ignoring both reality, prudence and the undisputed history of the Oilpatch - period !
This isn't about making the ''right'' predictions on what the market is going to do - it is more about ''reacting'' correctly to what it ''IS" doing...
Be as Bullish as you wanna be - just do NOT be afraid to ring the register - it's such a damn good sound (VBG) ! |
