Anindo, yes i do think it is for real. so if you are thinking of putting some money to work in this sector, use pullbacks to accumulate. my own method is to buy one or to leaders in each category. i like TX and MRO in the integrated oils, HAL and SLB in oil services, NEM, HM and AU in gold, PD and AR in copper, AA in aluminum, DE, NAV and CAT in heavy machinery IP and PCL in paper & timber, i even like BA. take your pick. it is probably best to diversify across the cyclicals, and once the leaders resume their run you might want to look at the secondaries as well.i will post a more comprehensive list of my 'cyclical universe' with some comments on the individual stocks to you over the weekend. note that i regard these stocks as mid- to longer term investments, not day-to-day trading vehicles.
regards,
hb |