Bill,
My opinions have changed a bit since my previous posts. Ward Systems has upgraded their NeuroShell Trader package to NS Trader Professional, which is a really nice piece of work.
For those just strating out with neural networks I would say try NS Trader. It is very similar to a charting package, has over 800 built in indicators, trains quick and is simple enoug to learn. It also shields you from many of the complexities that other packages allow you to adjust (momentum/learning rates, architecture, etc). These are great for those that understand them, but overwhelming for most beginning users.
From there you can upgrade to BioComp Profit or NS Trader Professional. Both are excellent packages, and both have made me money.
Biocomp Profit has the most flexibility, allowing you to use BP, CATNN, TDNN, SOM, TSOM and PNN architectures. It has two components, Profit and the NeuroGenetic Optimizer (NGO). Profit is where you set up your networks, importing ASCII or Metastock format data and preprocessing it using a few built in preprocessing transforms. This in my opinion is the weakest area of the product, and most users end up exporting transformed data from Excel or a charting package like Metastock.
Once the data is setup, you start NGO and it crunches away at it, sorting through inputs and architectures to find a combination that tests well both in sample and in a number of walk-forward tests that you can define. It then builds a pool of the best networks which you can later import into Profit for final evaluation. You can also optimize threshold settings and graphically view the robustness of your nets using something similar to a surface map.
It also has the ability to optimize using different fitness criteria. The best in my testing with stocks was simple Profit, but others are available. I suggest you download the trial version to see what's available.
NS Trader Professional is the same as the regular NS Trader, but it has Ward's GeneHunter genetic algorithm engine built in. It allows much more flexibility in designing a trading strategy and can use the GA to optimize not only the neural networks, but simple trading rules. I only upgraded this recently, but I have been very happy with it so far. It allows you to adjust the parameters used in your inputs (periods, time series - ie O,L,C,Bonds,etc) and choose the best inputs for a network. It also has multiple fitness functions, with about 15 to choose from.
In my opinion, NS Trader is a great place to start. Later you can upgrade it to the Pro version (paying the difference) or you may want to try Profit. As it stands right now, Ward has developed the best package for traders (again, IMHO) as it requires the least amount of work to get respectable results. As I work full time, this is a major criteria for me. There are only so many hours in the day! :)
Before you buy either package, make sure you have an idea of what you want to do with them. These are very different from NeuroStock, and if you try feeding simple OHLC type data into them you are bound to be disappointed. You are better off to build the networks into an existing strategy, or to use them as a confirming indicator in conjunction with your current trading methods.
Take care,
Optim |
