El: There is no reason to change my target. Give me a reason other than that that it has touched a 52 week low. Every stock has a a 52 week low.
Perhaps Rosen will reveal something that we don't yet know which will cause me to reassess, but I would have thought that if there is some deep dark secret it would be clear to senior executives and Rosen would have seized the opportunity to put it out two weeks ago.
Otherwise, I'll go with what I know.
This company had the highest sales in its history in terms of units sold and in terms of revenues. It looks like it did not sell enough of the high profit servers to balance the lower margins on the PC's. That can be fixed. It looks like it did not use tax credits, had a bad charge on Brazil devaluation, and has not yet eliminated duplication from the DEC and Tandem mergers, but that is history now.
A couple of weeks ago, it was all about channel stuffing . Every two-bit guru, journalist, and DELLHEAD was on about it - and low and behold - there was no channel stuffing, not enough channel stuffing. Notice how, two weeks later, nobody talks about that. Street perceptions change awfully quickly!
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