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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Ian@SI who wrote (4895)4/30/1999 10:08:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (2) of 15132
 
Ian: Re: "I suspect that the reason might have been found in the WFR conference Call.

WFR hasn't seen much acceleration in the 300mm activity."

Yes, I heard that but the 300mm stuffing was taken out of the market long ago IMO. PRIA deflated weeks ago and had a similar commentary on 300mm. We can thank Jack Robertson from some semi publication for lighting a 300mm fire to hysteric proportions. I openly questioned the move to 300mm on these threads. I did not have any inside dope or anything but I knew a few things. We were coming off the worst chip equipment recession ever and human nature is such not to go off half cocked and do heavy capex right out of the gates. It did not add up. Moreover, Barrett of Intel had made it clear he was going to boost the bottom line through cost reductions. A move to 300mm did not fit the bill.

Re: " Much of the current upturn, IMO, is based upon 300mm speculation."

Well, I would rather say the correction is based on the loss of the 300mm hype at least in part. The 300mm is out of the market for now. Goodbye -- gone <g>.

I think we are seeing selling in this sector and in other technology shares and move somewhere else until next week. I expect some redeployment in this sector. I am looking for big mo to come back into this sector within twenty days. We will know it when it happens. It may be gradual or it may be sudden but it will be apparent to all.

More this weekend...
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