Arthur- There has been a perception that Dell always goes straight up! Not true! A look at history will tell us that!
Indeed, in the past couple years, there are two long (5 month periods) in which Dell did precious little....Note: July 1997-November 1997, June 1998-October 1998...in both these periods, you could have bought Dell at the back end (of the period) and hit as low an entry-point (as anyone who bought during the previous many months)..Sure, these periods had some spikes, but the falls came fast and furious (and would have been hard to time).....
My point? That, even when Dell was producing 200% return a year, Dell had periods of several months in which you did not (over the entire period of time) make money....In this particular stretch we are in now, it has been approximately 3 months of (dead) time...that is still well within historical norms..
Now, I am of the camp that Dell is now poised to return 30-50% a year...which is still a great return....I think anyone who invests thinking they have a sure 80,100,150% gainer is looney (talking straight long here), and their greed will, eventually, be their demise..
So, given, in my view, that Dell has gone from a 200% year gainer, to a 30-50% p.a. gainer, it also stands to reason that the stock would have longer lag periods, and less powerful upward runs...but, given the nature of the stock (growth), it seems likely that Dell will not inch upward, but rather go in fits and starts...so, it is entirely possible that Dell could stall a bit longer (weeks), but given we are going into a good earnings report, we should see some upward movement soon...I am certainly not worried by this quarter's action...After all, the thing did run from 20-55 in less than 4 months (and there was the "hiccup")...
Dont know if this is what you are looking for...but they are my thoughts...Dell is still a great investment. I rather take my chances with a company who I know is going to grow earnings at 40-50% a year for the next 3 years.....than almost all other alternatives... |
